**J6 prosecution (DC Federal / Jack Smith):** Dead. DOJ won’t push it as a matter of policy. New AG will take it behind the barn and click, bang. Jack Smith loses his cushy gig.
**Classified prosecution (FL Federal / Jack Smith):** Dead for the same reasons.
**Hush money (NY State / Stormy Daniels and Judge Marchan):** Judge Marchan is considering whether immunity applies—expect a decision next week. If no immunity, then he’ll go to sentencing. Regardless of outcome, this case will be tied up in appeals and I’m quite confident that Trump’s lawyers will keep him out of jail. Lots of potential permutations there. _Lots._ (And while this all plays out, I’m confident that Trump will find a way to benefit politically.)
**Election interference (GA State / Fani Willis):** This case has been bogged down for a while. Trump is trying to disqualify Fani Willis. Without her, the case lacks a champion to push it. Immunity will definitely be an issue here. FWIW, my gut says Trump will win on that issue.
**Civil fraud (NY State / Letitia James):** This is a civil case, so immunity doesn’t apply. Still, as you may recall, it’s on appeal. The NY Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in September, where the panel questioned several aspects of the case. There’s a realistic possibility that the lower court’s judgment could be vacated, or possibly modified to reduce the penalty sharply.
**Defamation (NY Federal / Jean Carroll):** These cases are on appeal at the Second Circuit. No immunity because it’s a civil case. These cases involve jury verdicts, which are difficult to overturn because juries get so much deference on findings of fact. We’ll see what Trump can pull out of the hat.