May 1st • 3h 23m
Shownotes
Every new episode of No Agenda is accompanied by a comprehensive list of shownotes curated by Adam while preparing for the show. Clips played by the hosts during the show can also be found here.
Signal Gate
Signal DoD BOTG
As a military contractor with the Army and as a Navy Reservist, we are required to use Signal in Conus and OCONUS.
So the narrative that it’s a “commercial app” which you debunked, is false.
DOD uses it as the app of choice for opsec.
I embed with 160th, FORSCOM, etc.
All chats between us contractors and our Army counterparts are on Signal.
WhatsApp is only used by rear detachment Air Force units.
Send me a legit link to donate.
Btw, Michael Strycharz is a douche bag.
He turned me on to you in 2019-20.
Doesn’t donate.
Climate Change
Marbella outage BOTG
The USCIS process has slowed down unfortunately but hopefully I’ll have my interview this weeks
Boots
on the ground from Spain. We have now been told the black out here is
“weather” or Net-zero based after public radio telling us it was a cyber
attack while it was going on.
Interestingly
the communications black out here in Marbella was much longer than the
power outage. No wifi or cell service for 18 hours while the power was
only out for 7 hours.
EU
rules around no gas stoves (or BBQs on balconies) meant we had to
borrow a neighbours BBQ to heat water and milk for the kids.
Hope
you and the family are well. We can’t wait to be out of the EU/UK, it’s
only getting scarier here with the neo-cons on conservative clothing
pushing for more war.
Why did the lights go out in Spain and Portugal? – POLITICO
On Monday afternoon, Eduardo Prieto, director of Spanish transmission system operator Red Eléctrica, said the blackout was caused by a “very strong oscillation in the electrical network” that led Spain’s power system to “disconnect from the European system, and the collapse of the Iberian electricity network at 12:38.”
A press conference by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez late on Monday evening presented more questions than it answered.
Neighboring countries are also chipping in, with French grid operator RTE supplying 700 megawatts of electricity to Spain within hours of the blackout. The lights were back on in most of the Iberian Peninsula’s northernmost and southern regions by the late afternoon, thanks in part to power supplies from France and Morocco.
Spain Portugal outage BOTG Protector of Megawatts
Basically the situation was a substation in France. Stopped transmitting electricity. The why is TBD but what that meant for the Iberian peninsula is they suddenly lost 15 megawatts of generation from the French that they were reliant on because they were way oversubscribed to renewables
15000. Megawatts is a lot of generation to lose all at once. For instance, in Texas we don't get into an emergency situation until we get down to 3,000 megawatts of spinning reserve. Even on our best day for generation, it would be very difficult for our grid to survive that
My point is our emergency levels is when we could catastrophically lose 3,000 megawatts. They lost 15,000 megawatts
The important point there is because of their reliance on renewables and not having enough local generation in general. They were importing power and when that substation failed for whatever reason you got what you got
Had their local generation been online and in spinning reserve it would not have been an issue
"77% of generation was inverter based at the time. There wasn’t enough inertia for a stable system. Spain has been bragging about running 100% on renewables so they won’t admit they fucked up"
It's very difficult and that's why they were relying on that load from France. And yes, inverter-based resources is wind and or solar
nuclear is ac
AG BArbie
Doña Ana County judge resigns after feds arrest man at home | News | abqjournal.com
ITM Adam and John,
I want to share this bizarre story about Judge Joel Cano. Since his
arrest, people did a bit of digging and found out he has a daughter, April
Nicol. April is a gun YouTube Influencer or Guntuber as people will refer
to them. She also appeared in the video game franchise: Call of Duty. Alex
Zedra is an acquaintance of hers and has taken photos of April with
Cristhian. This is such a bizarre story and very likely a distraction of
bigger things going on in the world, but just wanted to share this story
for fun. I attached some photos and an archived article of the story.
-Maxwell
EU UK Ukraine and NATO
Trump Tapping
Purely speculation but could it be Trump is referring to a golf term? As in. Tapping a long and not tapping along.?. Tapping a long putt as in just nudging the ball slowly and taking several attempts..
Tapping along explained in context of pigs
Hi Adam,
I
think I solved the tapping along enigma. It must refer to what a guy in
a pig slaughterhouse does when he uses a rattle attached to a
broomstick to keep the pigs moving to their “final destination”, by
taping it on the floor behind them. This is illustrated in the following
video (start at 2:08 minutes):
(596) Slaughtering pigs in a humane way - YouTube
Enjoy!
Andy
Zelensky' s Goldmine Illusion: Selling a Future That Doesn’t Exist
By Alexander van Koningsbruggen | May 1, 2025
Volodymyr Zelensky’s international roadshow has long included a dazzling promise: Ukraine as the untapped goldmine of Europe — rich in rare earth elements, minerals, and strategic resources that could fuel the green transition and Western reindustrialization.
But according to recent reporting by Reuters, that promise now looks like a mirage.
It turns out, Zelensky sold the world a goldmine — without the mine.
The Harsh Truth: Ukraine Doesn’t Have Operational Rare Earth Mines
Despite the headlines about Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earths and critical minerals, Reuters confirms that not a single commercially operational rare earth mine exists in Ukraine today. Not one.
And even if the war were to end tomorrow, Ukraine faces years — if not decades — of delay before anything resembling real production could begin. Why? Because of the very same systemic issues that have plagued the country for years: bureaucratic red tape, corruption, and dysfunctional institutions.
40% of Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth Now Under Russian Control
Worse still, nearly 40% of the rare earth reserves once touted as Ukraine’s economic future are now under Russian control, according to the same Reuters report. That includes some of the most promising regions in the east and south.
In other words, the “strategic wealth” Ukraine was banking on — and using as leverage in foreign investment pitches — has already been carved up by Moscow.
It’s like promising investors oil riches while handing half the fields to your enemy.
Obstacles as Deep as the Earth Itself
Let’s take a quick tour of the reality beneath the spin:
• No infrastructure: Mining takes roads, rail, energy grids, and processing capacity — Ukraine lacks nearly all of these at scale.
• Bureaucratic chaos: Foreign investors face “inefficient and complex regulatory processes,” “difficulty accessing geological data,” and “difficulty obtaining land plots.”
• No fast track: Even under ideal conditions, new projects would take years to explore, permit, finance, and build — all before they yield a single ton of material.
So the question becomes: What exactly was Zelensky selling?
Hope Marketing Masquerading as Policy
The answer is clear: Zelensky wasn’t selling a functioning mining industry. He was selling hope — the idea that Ukraine’s mineral wealth could someday, somehow, transform it into a strategic pillar of the West.
It was a powerful story. It brought in political capital, investor attention, and even helped shape narratives in Brussels and Washington. But it was also deeply misleading.
Ukraine’s critical minerals sector is not a reality — it’s a hypothetical, resting on uncertain land, unreachable data, and increasingly inaccessible territory.
Conclusion: Western Optimism, Meet Eastern Reality
Ukraine’s mineral wealth remains trapped — beneath layers of earth, regulation, corruption, and now Russian control. Western investors and governments should take a hard look at the facts before building castles on sand.
Zelensky’s dream may still become a reality one day. But for now, it is exactly that: a dream — one that was packaged, promoted, and sold long before the foundations were ever laid.
Europe’s Peacekeeping Fantasy in Ukraine: Lofty Rhetoric, Hollow Resolve
By Alexander van Koningsbruggen | May 1, 2025
As the war in Ukraine grinds toward a potential ceasefire, Europe is dreaming big — again. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and several European leaders have floated the idea of deploying tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine after peace is achieved, under the banner of a “European-led peacekeeping mission.” The vision? Up to 60,000 soldiers safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty without relying on the U.S.
But like so many grand visions born in Brussels or Westminster, this one is falling apart under the weight of its own contradictions.
1. Troop Commitments: Numbers That Don’t Add Up
Europe’s rhetoric speaks of 60,000 boots on the ground. In reality, they’re struggling to scrape together even 25,000. Some countries — notably Spain, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and other European countries — have flatly refused to commit troops to such a mission, citing national security concerns, overstretched forces, or simply political unwillingness to take risks.
If this is a European show of strength, it’s looking more like a matinee with half the cast missing.
2. Peacekeeping After Peace Is a Convenient Excuse
Let’s be honest: peacekeeping after a ceasefire is the least dangerous and most symbolic version of military engagement. It allows leaders to posture as defenders of European security without facing the risk of direct conflict. But even that diluted commitment is proving too much for many European capitals.
If countries won’t send troops when the war is over, what chance was there of real intervention when Ukraine was burning?
3. The U.S. Shadow Still Looms
Despite the headline talk of “strategic autonomy,” Europe’s military credibility still leans on the United States like a crutch. Air defense systems, ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), and rapid deployment logistics are all American-made and American-operated. Without U.S. backing, any peacekeeping mission in Ukraine risks being little more than a ceremonial presence — with flags, speeches, and little real power.
4. The Quiet Retreat: From Peacekeepers to Trainers
As reality sets in, Europe is quietly downsizing its ambitions. The grand peacekeeping mission is already being repackaged into a “training initiative” — with British and French troops expected to stay far from the front lines, in safer regions like Lviv or Ivano-Frankivsk.
Is this strategic realism, or a public admission of failure dressed up as success?
5. Political Theater Disguised as Strategy
Europe’s peacekeeping plan has become a diplomatic fig leaf. It hides divisions, pretends unity, and avoids the hard truth: most European nations are unwilling to take real political or military risks for Ukraine, even post-war.
Worse still, this half-hearted approach may embolden aggressors. If peacekeepers won’t show up after peace, what credibility does Europe have when it talks about “standing with Ukraine”?
⸻
Conclusion: A Dream That Dies on Contact with Reality
The European dream of leading a robust peacekeeping mission in Ukraine is admirable in theory — but dismal in execution. Political posturing, military underinvestment, and fractured alliances have already undermined it before a single soldier steps onto Ukrainian soil.
Until Europe can align its actions with its words, Ukraine — and the world — should be wary of taking its promises at face value.
Big Tech AI and the Socials
Vibe Coding - Better definition
Adam,
I think you described the experience of AI coding accurately. The term vibe coding was kind of a meme that ultimately meant "you can just let the AI do its thing (i.e. just go by vibes), but if you come up with something that even runs, its going to end up being a Picasso type of app. Its going to look like a bunch of shapes plastered on a canvas."
So the joke of "vibe coding" is kind of exactly what you described, you won't get anything useful.
Vibe Coding
Grok surprisingly good at code, but only at writing code, it still shows no signs of intelligence
Stablecoin SOFR
LIBOR ended on March 31st (last contract) SOFR is now the benchmark
Replacement Migration
Israel vs Everyone
Canada
Canadian election anal 😉
Carney Liberals won BUT by such a small margin that the way it works in Canadian politics, there will be another election triggered in a year or 18 months because the conservatives and Bloc Québécois (the separatist party) won’t let them get anything done. By then, too, Trump won’t be an issue and the Boomers (who are the ones that came out for carney) will realize how bad he is.
So they won. But not really.
Brandi
Rare Earth
Rubio Rwanda - Minerals BOTG
Adam,
I worked in the mining industry for 8 years and lived in Africa for +/- 15, in DRC (mostly) and Kenya.
The answer to the questions posed on episode #1760 Eat The Babies, approx 47:46, about why Rubio went to Africa to make peace between DRC and its neighbors AND how that has any relation to rare earth _processing_ is:
Rwanda is already doing un-official processing of rare minerals from DRC.
There is a lot of backstory but basically that area (East Central Africa) is a mineral and oil bonanza and those African nations (some tribes in particular) are keen to do their own processing to benefit from the value-add (which both China, more recently, and the US/UK/France, historically, have actively suppressed).
Here are the receipts:
**https://news.mongabay.com/2025/02/how-illicit-mining-fuels-violence-in-eastern-drc-interview-with-jean-pierre-okenda/**
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-rebel-gains-boost-illicit-mineral-trade-through-rwanda-analysts-say-2025-01-28/
https://www.theafricareport.com/375904/drc-rwanda-rubaya-coltan-mine-at-the-heart-of-m23-financing/
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3307896/could-us-dr-congo-minerals-security-deal-threaten-chinas-mining-dominance
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/CONGO-SECURITY/MAPS/movaykzaava/
All listeners should know, Mimi's book Too Many Eggs is fantastic! Truly great! It does need an index though, so maybe a 2nd edition could add that in?
Tariffs
China waives 125% tariff for ethane imports | Fox Business
China waived a 125% tariff on ethane imports from the U.S. on Tuesday, according to a report from Reuters.
China had initially imposed the tariff earlier this month as part of its retaliation against President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariff campaign. China is responsible for purchasing roughly half of America's ethane exports each year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Chinese companies that rely on U.S. ethane include Satellite Chemical, SP Chemicals, Sinopec, Sanjiang Fine Chemical and Wanhua Chemical Group, while the key U.S. exporters are Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer.
Ethane joins a growing list of products that China has granted tariff exemptions for amid the ongoing trade war with Washington.
