Diplomacy or Deception: Did Ursula von der Leyen Sell Trump an Empty Deal?
By Alexander van Koningsbruggen
When Donald Trump walked out of a high-profile meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he was visibly pleased. He even jotted down what appeared to be a triumphant list: a 15% tariff reduction on nearly everything, $600 billion in EU investments in the U.S., and $750 billion worth of American gas and oil exports to Europe.
For Trump, it was a PR jackpot. For Brussels, it was a diplomatic minefield.
Promises Without Power
The European Union is not a monolith. That’s the first point any serious observer of transatlantic relations will tell you. While von der Leyen may sit atop the EU Commission, she doesn’t control the purse strings of European companies or the procurement plans of sovereign member states. When she makes sweeping commitments about energy purchases, weapons acquisitions, or corporate investments, it raises a key question: Can she actually deliver?
The answer, increasingly, appears to be no.
Echoes of the Soybean Bluff
This episode is not unprecedented. In 2018, then-Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker made a similar play. To prevent a tariff escalation with Trump, he pledged that the EU would buy large quantities of U.S. soybeans. What he omitted was the inconvenient truth: the EU Commission doesn’t control agricultural imports—those decisions are made by individual companies and member states. In reality, Juncker couldn’t purchase a single soybean on behalf of the EU.
Von der Leyen’s “commitments” to Trump may well fall into the same category—diplomatic theater disguised as economic policy.
Trump Asks for Guarantees
Reports indicate that Trump, now more skeptical and media-savvy than in his first term, was not so easily convinced. After the meeting, he demanded assurance that EU firms wouldn’t back out of their supposed investment plans. His reaction? A blunt challenge: “Prove it.”
But proof may be hard to come by. Even high-ranking officials within EU governments expressed confusion over the origin of these alleged investments. German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche publicly admitted she had no idea which firms were involved or how much they were supposedly contributing.
The Illusion of a Unified Buyer
Then there’s the question of gas and oil. Trump seemed to believe the EU had agreed to buy $750 billion worth of American fossil fuels. That would be an enormous commitment—if it were real.
But again, the EU doesn’t function like a single buyer. Brussels can’t force Poland to purchase American LNG, nor can it dictate that French firms invest in Ohio manufacturing plants. Energy markets and corporate investment decisions remain decentralized. The “commitment” was more of an aspirational suggestion than a contractual obligation.
Strategic Bluff or Diplomatic Overreach?
Was von der Leyen bluffing? Possibly. Was she overpromising? Almost certainly.
Michael Jäger, a prominent EU fiscal watchdog, has criticized the pledges as irresponsible. His point is simple but critical: von der Leyen is offering up other people’s money—European taxpayers and private corporations—for political deals that she may not be able to enforce.
Meanwhile, skepticism grows within the European Parliament and national governments. There’s concern that von der Leyen’s diplomatic style—confident, ambitious, and sometimes improvisational—may ultimately undermine EU credibility abroad.
A Calculated Gamble That Will Backfire
Von der Leyen may have calculated that a promise-heavy approach could diffuse trade tensions or curry favor with an unpredictable Trump. But if those promises unravel—as they seem to be doing—the result could be diminished EU influence and increased transatlantic distrust.
Moreover, Trump himself may be less patient than before. While he once accepted vague pledges, his insistence on guarantees this time suggests a more hardened negotiating posture. This could spell trouble if the EU can’t—or won’t—follow through.
Final Thought
So, did Ursula von der Leyen fool Trump?
Perhaps briefly. But not for long.
What we’re witnessing isn’t just a clash of political styles or economic visions—it’s a test of institutional limits. Trump, for all his unpredictability, expects results. Von der Leyen, for all her ambition, can only offer suggestions.
And in geopolitics, especially with someone like Trump, suggestions aren’t worth much without enforcement.