January 4th • 3h 4m
Shownotes
Every new episode of No Agenda is accompanied by a comprehensive list of shownotes curated by Adam while preparing for the show. Clips played by the hosts during the show can also be found here.
Maduro Capture
The Oil Baron Called it!
Extraction - Deal about Smartmatic and Dominion
Venezuela Timeline
1990's US oil companies invest in Production and extraction facilities
Oil prices were in the gutter $40-$50
PDVSA signed contracts with Chevron, Exxon/Mobile and ConocoPhillips
Massive investment in the Orinoco Belt
60/40 split, no ownership
Everyone was happy
2000 - Oil prices rise up to $100
Chavez declares the Bolivarian revolution
Needed a lot of money to implement the Socialist system of free stuff for all
2001 new laws, put PDVSA in control of operations, kicked out US management, in 2002 the PDVSA employees actually protested this change
Companies that refused had their assets frozen were taken over
Oil revenues collapsed by 75% due to the strike
Chavez broke the strike and fired 18000 engineers and rig workers
Chavez changes the split to 70/30, doubles the royalties to 30% and implements a 50% tax rate
2007 Chavez seizes all of the oil assets of these companies
Companies could only file lawsuits and eventually won, but got about $1B each, a fraction of the investment
PDVSA became bloated, mismanaged and fire with corruption
Production had fallen to less than 25%
Chavez dies in 2013 and the bus driver Maduro stepped in
Teh social programs are failing badly
Revenues fell, so they started printing money, ultimately resulting in 1.3 Million % inflation of the Bolivar
Maduro turns to drug money to make up for the shortfall
2022 Exxon Mobile scores big in Guyana, right next door
2023 Maduro says that the Essequibo region actually belongs to Venezuela and moves troops to the border
2025 Maduro ratchets up the heat, just as Trump is coming in
Jan 3 in Trump World
And maybe doing it today, Jan 3, is significant. 36 years ago, Noriega surrendered to US forces after hiding in the Vatican Embassy and then flown to Miami on drugs charges. Trump likes significant dates.
China Russia and Iran were all benefitting from the turmoil in Venezuela
Next 96 hours are crucial
With the sudden capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, Venezuela is in a precarious "day zero" scenario.1 The immediate power vacuum creates a high risk of chaos that could worsen the existing humanitarian crisis.
Summary: The next 72 to 96 hours are critical. If the population does not see immediate improvements in food availability and safety, the initial shock of the capture could turn into violent desperation.
Diplomatic Containment: The U.S. must deter interference from external actors like Cuba, Russia, or China, who have significant investments and personnel in the region.
1. Immediate Security & Stabilization
The most urgent risk is violent unrest from "colectivos" (armed pro-regime gangs), remnant military factions, or criminal syndicates taking advantage of the vacuum.
Establish a Security Umbrella: The U.S. has signaled it may temporarily "run" security operations, but this must quickly pivot to empowering a trusted local force.2 This involves neutralizing paramilitary groups without sparking a prolonged civil war.
Prevent Looting: Critical infrastructure, especially food distribution centers and hospitals, must be secured immediately to prevent looting that would accelerate famine.
2. Emergency Humanitarian "Shock" Aid
Venezuela’s supply chains are already broken. A sudden regime change often freezes commercial activity, which could halt food imports entirely for weeks.
Direct Food & Medicine Injection: A massive, coordinated influx of ready-to-eat food and essential medicines is required within days, not months. This likely involves U.S. military logistics (airbridges) working alongside NGOs like the Red Cross.
Protect Aid Corridors: Ensuring that aid convoys are not hijacked by gangs or corrupt officials is as important as the aid itself.
3. Rapid Political Transition
President Trump has stated the U.S. might "run" the country temporarily, but indefinite foreign occupation creates resentment and instability.3
Recognize Civilian Authority: Steps must be taken to transfer authority to the democratically elected opposition (likely centering on Edmundo González and María Corina Machado) to provide legitimacy.4
Unified Interim Government: A transitional council must be formed immediately to manage the bureaucracy, pay civil servants (to keep water and electricity running), and prevent a total state collapse.
4. Economic Triage & Oil Sector Reactivation
Venezuela faces hyperinflation and a lack of foreign currency.
Lift Oil Sanctions: The U.S. will likely move to immediately lift sanctions to allow Venezuelan oil to flow to Western markets again.
Technical Assistance: U.S. energy companies (as hinted by President Trump) would need to deploy teams to repair dilapidated oil infrastructure.5 Oil revenue is the only way Venezuela can eventually pay for its own food imports.
Currency Stabilization: The U.S. Treasury and IMF may need to provide a bridge loan or emergency liquidity to ensure the new government can buy imports.
5. Managing Regional Spillover
Border Control: Work with Colombia and Brazil to manage the flow of refugees. A disorderly collapse could send millions more fleeing across borders.
Possible Stablecoin Solution
Because the US government has stated it intends to "run the country" temporarily, a US-dollar-backed stablecoin (like USDC) offers a way to digitally dollarize the economy immediately without waiting for physical cash to arrive.
Here is why stablecoins are uniquely viable for this specific scenario:
1. The "Rails" Are Already Built (Precedent Exists)1
Unlike most humanitarian crises where infrastructure must be built from scratch, Venezuela already has a "shadow" crypto economy due to years of hyperinflation.2
High Adoption: A significant portion of the population (especially under 40) already uses apps like Binance, Reserve, or AirTM to hold savings in USDT or USDC to avoid the worthless bolívar.
Proven Pilot: In 2020, the US government (via the Treasury and State Dept) successfully executed the "Heroes of Health" program.3 They bypassed the Maduro regime's banking system to send millions of dollars in USDC directly to the digital wallets of 60,000 doctors and nurses using the AirTM platform.
2. Bypassing the "Rotten" Bureaucracy
President Trump’s stated goal is to avoid the "corruption" of the old regime. Traditional aid (sending wire transfers to the Central Bank of Venezuela) would likely see funds stolen by lingering loyalists or frozen in bureaucratic chaos.
Direct-to-Beneficiary: Stablecoins allow the US Treasury to "airdrop" purchasing power directly to individual citizens' smartphones, skipping the Venezuelan Central Bank entirely.
Traceability: Unlike pallets of cash (which can be seized by gangs), US-regulated stablecoins (like Circle's USDC) can be tracked.4 If a "colectivo" leader seizes a phone, the funds in that specific wallet can theoretically be blacklisted or frozen by the issuer, making theft less attractive.
3. Immediate Inflation Stop
The bolívar is currently in freefall.5
Instant Stability: If the US distributes physical $20 bills, it takes weeks to reach rural areas. A digital dollar (stablecoin) arrives instantly and retains its value from the moment of receipt.
Merchant Acceptance: Due to the crisis, many Venezuelan merchants (supermarkets, pharmacies) already accept crypto transfers because they prefer it over the local currency.
4. The "Off-Switch" (Strategic Control)
Since the US administration wants to ensure control, stablecoins offer a feature that physical cash does not: programmability.
The US could issue "programmatic aid" tokens that can only be spent at verified merchants (e.g., specific grocery chains or pharmacies) to prevent the money from flowing into the black market or weapons trade.
The Critical Bottlenecks
While high-value, this strategy cannot be the only solution due to two major risks:
The "Blackout" Risk: If the power grid fails (a common occurrence in Venezuela), digital wallets become inaccessible. Physical food and medicine must still be the primary "first aid."
The Elderly Gap: The demographic most at risk of famine (the elderly) is the least likely to have smartphones or know how to use digital wallets. They would need physical centers to exchange digital tokens for physical goods.
Verdict: A "Digital Dollar Drop" is likely the fastest way to restore economic activity in urban centers (Caracas, Maracaibo) within 48 hours, while physical convoys focus on rural areas and the elderly.
Venezuela update from Curacao
Just a small update from the sunny island of Curaçao.
Curaçao
is a small island about 40 miles off the coast of Venezuela so you
might expect everyone to be in full panic mode this morning. That is not
the case at all (with the exception of my wife).
Over
the past five years, we have been traveling with our four little kids
to around 45 countries(insta:thetraveliciousfamily). We do this for
about half of the year; the rest of the time we live on Curaçao, which
we consider our home. At the beginning of December, we returned from
four months of travel through Morocco, Oman, Ethiopia, Egypt, and
Jordan. After that, we spent one week in the Netherlands, our former
home country.
Every time we visit the Netherlands, we notice how much fear is being created by the mainstream media — about war, Putin = bad, Trump = bad,
and global warming will kill us all. When we return to Curaçao, the
contrast is striking. Here, nobody seems worried about geopolitical
issues at all, even though the situation is literally in our backyard.
In
fact, the Dutch national MSM (NOS Journaal) came to Curaçao a few
weeks ago trying to find someone who was afraid. They couldn’t.
Eventually, they ran a story about a “fisherman” who was supposedly
afraid to go out on his boat — but people on the island know he isn’t
even a fisherman. Ironically, people in the Netherlands seem more afraid
of U.S.–Venezuelan tensions than the people actually living here.
Today,
you might expect crowded supermarkets and people filling up their cars
with fuel, but everything is as normal as ever. None of my local
WhatsApp groups are even discussing the situation. The only concern I’ve
heard there is whether Fuik Day — the biggest annual boat party on the
island — might be canceled tomorrow.
Through
our cleaning lady and our painter, both Venezuelan refugees, we know
the situation in Venezuela is truly bad. Because of that, I’m somewhat
hopeful that change might come. At the same time, I worry it could turn
into another Libya situation, with corporations like Exxon effectively
running the country. Still, that may be better than what exists there
right now. So let's hope for the best!!
Thanks
Wouter (please don't let John pronounce this)
Thetraveliciousfamily
ps: if it's good info for the show please tell Joep is a duce bag
Gen Zed
Gen Z Gripes
No ebikes - playing cards in spokes
No Uber - we had feet
No latteés - Folgers
Advocado toast 9 grain- wonder bread and butter
Instagram - week to develop at photo at photomat - no filters no cropping
We didn't have tik tok - we had 8mm with no sound
No 100 friends, we had the kids at the mall
World of war craft - We had pong ms Pacman
Economic & Career Struggles
* The Housing Crisis:
* Gen Z: Being locked out of homeownership due to skyrocketing prices and corporate buyouts.
* Boomers: Facing 18% interest rates on mortgages in the early 1980s, making borrowing nearly impossible for many young families.
* Inflation Panic:
* Gen Z: The post-COVID cost-of-living crisis and "shrinkflation."
* Boomers: The "Great Inflation" and Stagflation of the 1970s, where prices rose rapidly while the economy stagnated.
* Workplace Disillusionment:
* Gen Z: "Quiet Quitting" and refusing to hustle for corporations that don't care about them.
* Boomers: The "Turn on, tune in, drop out" counterculture movement, rejecting the "Company Man" ethos of their parents.
* Job Automation Fear:
* Gen Z: Fear that AI (Artificial Intelligence) will replace creative and white-collar jobs.
* Boomers: Fear of computerization and robotics replacing manufacturing and clerical jobs in the 1970s and 80s.
Existential & Environmental Threats
* The "End of the World" Drill:
* Gen Z: Active Shooter drills in schools.
* Boomers: "Duck and Cover" nuclear bomb drills in schools.
* The Invisible Poison:
* Gen Z: Fear of microplastics in our blood and food supply.
* Boomers: Fear of DDT, lead paint, and leaded gasoline poisoning their children and environment.
* The Geopolitical Boogeyman:
* Gen Z: Anxiety over rising tensions with Russia/China and "World War III" trending on social media.
* Boomers: The Red Scare and the Cold War, living with the constant, loom threat of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
* Energy Panic:
* Gen Z: Anxiety over fossil fuel dependency and the transition to renewables.
* Boomers: The 1973 and 1979 Oil Crises, which led to gas rationing, long lines at the pump, and fights breaking out over fuel.
* Pandemic Trauma:
* Gen Z: Loss of youth and socialization due to COVID-19 lockdowns.
* Boomers: The fear of Polio in childhood (closing pools/theaters) or the terrifying onset of the AIDS epidemic in their young adulthood.
Social & Cultural Friction
* The "Narcissism" Label:
* Gen Z: Accused of having "Main Character Syndrome" and being obsessed with social media clout.
* Boomers: Were famously labeled "The Me Generation" in the 1970s by writer Tom Wolfe for their perceived self-obsession and introspection.
* (Note: This is a very strong point for your argument—both were called selfish by their elders.)
* Protest & Civil Unrest:
* Gen Z: Black Lives Matter protests and polarization over policing.
* Boomers: The Civil Rights Movement riots, the 1968 DNC protests, and the burning of inner cities.
* (Note: The scale of domestic violence in 1968 arguably exceeded modern unrest.)
* The "Rotting Your Brain" Media:
* Gen Z: Addiction to TikTok/Reels shortening attention spans.
* Boomers: Parents claiming Television would rot their brains and destroy the ability to read or think critically.
* Music Panics:
* Gen Z: Criticism of mumble rap or hyper-sexualized pop culture.
* Boomers: The panic over Rock & Roll, heavy metal, and the "Satanic Panic" regarding lyrics.
* Substance Abuse Crises:
* Gen Z: The Fentanyl and Opioid crisis.
* Boomers: The Heroin epidemic of the 1970s and the subsequent Crack epidemic of the 80s.
* Distrust of Government:
* Gen Z: Belief that the system is rigged and politicians are corrupt (post-2016 disillusionment).
* Boomers: The shattering of institutional trust caused by Watergate and the Vietnam War.
Rights & Values
* Gender & Identity:
* Gen Z: Battles over transgender rights and gender fluidity.
* Boomers: The Women’s Liberation Movement (burning bras) and the Gay Rights Movement (Stonewall), which were considered radically destabilizing at the time.
* Reproductive Rights:
* Gen Z: The anger and fear following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
* Boomers: The anger and fear of the pre-Roe v. Wade era, fighting for the legalization of contraception and abortion.
* The Draft:
* Gen Z: Fear of being drafted for a future global conflict.
* Boomers: The reality of the Vietnam Draft, where lottery numbers determined who was sent to war.
* Corporate Power:
* Gen Z: Hatred of "Big Tech" (Amazon/Meta) monitoring our lives.
* Boomers: Hatred of the "Military-Industrial Complex" and conglomerates like ITT or GE controlling policy.
* Religious Shifts:
* Gen Z: The rise of the "Nones" (people with no religious affiliation) and interest in astrology/manifestation.
* Boomers: The New Age Movement of the 70s, where Boomers turned to Eastern spirituality, crystals, and yoga to replace traditional organized religion.
The "End of Days" Anxiety
* Atmospheric Collapse:
* Gen Z: Climate Change (Global Warming).
* Early Gen X: The Ozone Layer Hole. The discovery of a massive hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica in the 80s caused a global panic that we would all burn to death from UV radiation.
* The "Forever" Virus:
* Gen Z: Fear of Long COVID and future pandemics disrupting life.
* Early Gen X: The terror of the AIDS Crisis. Before treatments existed, a diagnosis was a death sentence, fundamentally changing how young people viewed sex, dating, and blood safety.
* Nuclear Nightmares:
* Gen Z: Anxiety over tactical nukes in Ukraine/Gaza.
* Early Gen X: The broadcast of "The Day After" (1983). It was a TV movie about nuclear aftermath that was so realistic and terrifying, schools set up counseling hotlines for traumatized students.
* Satanic Conspiracies:
* Gen Z: QAnon and "PizzaGate" theories about elites harming children.
* Early Gen X: The "Satanic Panic" of the 80s. Parents were convinced daycare centers and Dungeons & Dragons groups were secret cults ritually abusing children (the McMartin Preschool trial).
Economic & Career Cynicism
* The "Selling Out" Stigma:
* Gen Z: Being accused of being an "industry plant" or "clout chaser."
* Early Gen X: The obsession with "Selling Out." If an indie band signed to a major label or an artist did a commercial, they were socially exiled.
* Market Crashes:
* Gen Z: Watching Crypto crashes and the 2020 recession.
* Early Gen X: Black Monday (1987). The stock market crashed 22% in a single day, shattering the "Yuppie" dream of endless wealth just as Gen X was entering the workforce.
* Parental Absence:
* Gen Z: "iPad Kids" (raised by screens because parents are working/distracted).
* Early Gen X: "Latchkey Kids." The first generation where divorce rates spiked and both parents worked, leaving kids to let themselves in at 3 PM and fend for themselves until dinner.
* McJob Disillusionment:
* Gen Z: The "Gig Economy" (Uber/DoorDash) offering no benefits or future.
* Early Gen X: The "McJob." A term coined to describe the low-pay, low-prestige service jobs that became the only option for college grads during the recession of the early 90s.
Media & Technology Panic
* Brain Rot:
* Gen Z: "TikTok Brain" destroying attention spans.
* Early Gen X: MTV. Parents and critics screamed that 24-hour music videos (rapid cuts, flashy images) were destroying the attention spans and literacy of the youth.
* Violent Media:
* Gen Z: Desensitization to gore on the uncensored internet (LiveLeak, Twitter/X).
* Early Gen X: "Video Nasties" & Mortal Kombat. The panic that renting horror movies on VHS or playing violent video games would turn kids into serial killers.
* Subliminal Control:
* Gen Z: Algorithms manipulating your behavior and voting.
* Early Gen X: Subliminal Messages. The fear that rock bands were hiding backward messages ("backmasking") in records to brainwash kids into worshipping the devil.
* The "Stranger" Threat:
* Gen Z: Online predators and Catfishing.
* Early Gen X: "Stranger Danger" & Milk Cartons. The era when missing children’s faces were printed on milk cartons, creating a pervasive fear that being outside alone meant you would be kidnapped.
Social Friction
* Fashion Rebellion:
* Gen Z: Gender-fluid clothing and dyed hair as a rejection of norms.
* Early Gen X: Grunge & Goth. Wearing flannel, ripped jeans, and looking "dirty" was a deliberate rejection of the polished, capitalist aesthetic of the 80s.
* Drug Crises:
* Gen Z: The vaping epidemic in high schools.
* Early Gen X: "Just Say No." The crack cocaine epidemic was destroying inner cities, leading to the aggressive (and often mocked) D.A.R.E. programs in schools.
* Family Structure:
* Gen Z: Trauma from broken homes and "situationships."
* Early Gen X: The Divorce Explosion. Following the film Kramer vs. Kramer (1979), this was the first generation where divorce became common, shattering the "nuclear family" ideal.
* Urban Decay:
* Gen Z: The "Doom Loop" of dying downtowns (San Francisco, etc.).
* Early Gen X: The Bronx is Burning. The 70s/80s saw major cities like NYC and Detroit crumble into bankruptcy, high crime, and arson, making urban life feel apocalyptic.
Cultural Identity
* Political Apathy:
* Gen Z: "Doomerism" (believing nothing matters because the world is ending).
* Early Gen X: "Slacker" Culture. The stereotype that Gen X was lazy and cynical, embodied by movies like Clerks or Reality Bites, rejecting the "rat race" entirely.
* The Japanese Takeover:
* Gen Z: Fear of China overtaking the US economy.
* Early Gen X: The Japan Panic. In the 80s, Americans feared Japan was buying up all US real estate (Rockefeller Center) and tech, leading to intense economic xenophobia (depicted in Die Hard or Back to the Future II).
* Toxic Masculinity:
* Gen Z: Calling out "Alpha Male" podcasters.
* Early Gen X: The Dice Man Era. The popularity of comedians like Andrew Dice Clay sparked the first major mainstream debates about misogyny and political correctness.
* Institutional Distrust:
* Gen Z: "Fake News."
* Early Gen X: Tabloid TV. The rise of sensationalist talk shows (Jerry Springer, Geraldo) which blurred the line between news and trash entertainment for the first time.
A Closing Thought on the "Gen X" Bridge
The early Gen X experience is critical to your argument because they were the "guinea pig" generation. They were the test subjects for:
* Mass divorce
* 24-hour media cycles
* Globalized outsourcing (loss of manufacturing jobs)
Boomer vs Zoomer housing
You said there wasn’t much different between the when you were a young adult and now but I would say there is one place we millennials have it worse which is housing costs. My dad told me about a townhouse nearby that he thought about buying and in 1990 it was $35,000 but on Zillow today it shows like $165,000. Even when you adjust for inflation over the past 35 years it’s an increase of like $70,000 which is crazy and I’m in Mississippi which is on the lower end of the spectrum for housing costs.
Climate Change
Confusion on Fusion BOTG
When I was helping Eric Boerner run for President, I wrote you a letter.
I’ve been working on promoting Fusion energy for years now and have tried to help your confusion.
Yes. Tritium and Deuterium fused. The Deuterium is easy. The Tritium requires refinement or processing. Like pulling it out of the heavy water at Hanford for example, or processing Lithium to get Tritium.
The main thing you are missing is the two different types of Fusion reactors. The Tokamak design is most popular in Europe and the US. It uses magnets and a theoretical containment system. It is much smaller in scale. Think one Tokamak reactor for one data center.
The Fusion reactor technology proven out by Lawrence Livermore Labs and now merged with Trump org through TAE uses giant laser systems. The containment system for an industrial size scale reactor is the last leap required. Think one of these Fusion reactors for an entire region of the country.
I’ve met with The head of Princeton Fusion Labs (Prof Cowley) to prove out the Boerner Fusion Future plan for the nation.
The inside word I have not been able to verify is that the MIT plasma scientist was working on a containment solution.
I was pissed when I heard about the Trump merger because it privatizes the effort instead of using the US DOE so that the American citizens own it.
This technology can take the US from a super power to a hyper nation AND eat the horrendous inflation we’ve had. The Boerner plan was amazing. You were contacted early in the effort.
Jay
Canada
Don't apologize in a car accident
In yesterday's episode, John has an aside where
he talks about how OpenAI hiring that role admits liability, and it's
just like how you should never apologize when in a car accident.
Well,
this is going to sound like a joke, but it's not a joke. In Canada,
everyone is so apologetic, that we have laws on the books that state
explicitly that an apology is not an admission of liability
https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/s09003
Effect of apology on liability
2. (1) An apology made by or on behalf of a person in connection with any matter,
(a)
does not, in law, constitute an express or implied admission of fault
or liability by the person in connection with that matter;
(b)
does not, despite any wording to the contrary in any contract of
insurance or indemnity and despite any other Act or law, void, impair or
otherwise affect any insurance or indemnity coverage for any person in
connection with that matter; and
(c) shall not be taken into account in any determination of fault or liability in connection with that matter.
Tim
