709: Terror Factory

Nuke requirements and uses

How many centrifuges does Iran need to a) supply for atomic energy

programs b) build the bomb:

The key to nuclear fission weapons is based on enrichment. That means

that from a lump of dust you want to increase the concentration of

certain isotopes. The isotopes need to be fissionable (U-235 is the

target here) and they must come in a certain density to allow for

various types of chain reactions.

For energy production, the density (amount of U-235 vs anything else)

required is relatively low and the purity (presence of certain other

isotopes) required is also low. For weapons, the density must only be

slightly bigger (it starts at 20% but that gives you a very unreliable

and inefficient device, usually 85% is the target). However, purity

becomes a critical issue.

Now, enrichment works in stages. You essentially put the input material

into a solution, transform that into a gas, and then pump that through

a centrifuge. The centrifuge separates atoms (which is why you need

the gas stage, liquid or solid doesnt work on atoms but

molecules or lumps) by mass. U-235 has a mass different from other

elements and their isotopes. However, centrifuges only separate into

two masses. So, you get a "heavy" and a "light" output. Since the

input is a mixture of all kind of stuff, you need several stages for

enrichment. For density increase only few stages are required, for

purity increase you need lots of stages (you cut the input down more

and more finely). Furthermore, it takes a while to run a sample through

a centrifuge. It's not an instant process and only operates on minute

amounts of matter.

The various stages of centrifuges put in a series is called a

"cascade". Multiple cascades in parallel are called a "matrix". So, the

longer the cascades the better for purity. The bigger the matrix, the

more total output amount.

So, this is not a big conspiracy or mystery. It's plain old easy

politics.

Now, what does that mean:

For doing weapons grade (85% enriched, very low amounts of capturing

isotopes) Uranium you need a lot of stages, which means a lot of

centrifuges. To get enough Uranium of that isotope you also have to run

many cascades in parallel (have a big matrix).

However, to get fuel for nuclear power production, you need shorter

cascades but many more of them (since you need far more fuel). One thus

has to calculate the amount of Uranium needed for power production,

regulate the setup of the cascades, and from that calculate the number

of centrifuges. Simple "you need this many cascades to build a bomb" is

utter bullshit. The question is "how long to build it", and how are the

centrifuges arranged. Sure, you can build a bomb with a couple of

hundred centrifuges, but it takes a century to do so and the purity

will be so low that it will be unreliable and quickly self-degrading.

But you wont be able to ever get enough fuel for a nuclear power plant

from that - you burn it quicker than you can produce it.

From that, the negotiation goes to finding out how to regulate the

enrichment program so that the Iranians have a certain configuration of

cascades present (for nuclear fuel production) AND keep the total

number of centrifuges at a level that would create a warning time to

allow the "international community" to react IF Iran reconfigures their

cascades for nuclear bomb production.

The current numbers in negotiation are 3000-5000 centrifuges plus

import of pre-enriched Uranium for nuclear power production. The

critical mass of existing centrifuges that would reduce the warning

time below an acceptable limit (we're talking 18-24 month) is 8000

centrifuges.

So, the variables are: Number of centrifuges, configuration of

cascades, warning time, inspections.

Again, forget the "we give them just enough centrifuges for building a

bomb". That is utter bullshit. Total lack of any understanding of the

technology in question.

Iran to control it all

With Iran and the Sauds pushing each other around, what's the role

of the West in this?

A moderate, non-nuclear but strong Iran is a perfect counterbalance to

the Sauds. Don't forget that there are interests to be protected that

do not allow for constant armed intervention. The Sauds must be

contained, Turkey must be contained. Iraq DID that when Hussein was

still in place. Now Iraq is waiting to be cut up between the Jordan,

Saudi-Arabia, the Kurds and Iran. But the result of that will be that

there will be a power shift. Somebody (the Sauds) will have the

majority of access to both oil and gas, together with the Kurds in the

north. But how can the Kurds bank on this? Only by either going through

Turkey or through the Sauds. Not a good idea. If the Turks and the

Sauds fuck with each other then, the whole balance will tip and the tap

will be closed. So, rather set up a three-way. If two of them fight,

have a third that can moderate (and ensure access). So, instead of

having Turkey and Saudi Arabia step into the next round of becoming the

dominant power (and remain to be it), introduce a third power that

keeps the other two from finishing each other. And that is Iran. It's

like putting a stool on three legs instead of one. Create a

controllable stability by having enough semi-equal parties. That should

ensure that no power there will be strong enough (and have the time

for) to create a leading power of the region. If any would, the West

would not just lose access to a little oil and gas, but it would also

see itself depend on this new player for the African access, AND it

would create a new power block that would include the middle and near

east, much of northern Africa and parts of the Turk countries. Look at

the map. That would be shit.

So, maintain a balance that has no clear dominance and that does not

allow anybody to break out of the scheme without making oneself

vulnerable. When Iraq was pulled out, and I do think that the plan

there simply went south, the West was trusting to be able to contain it

themselves. But Turkey and Saudi-Arabia didn't agree. Hence we have to

pull in Iran again to create a balance. Make Iran strong enough to be

that counter-balance that it historically has been in the past.

If you need more hints for why this is the actual story, rememb