Thu, 14 Apr 2022 15:16
Image Supporters of President Emmanuel Macron celebrating in Paris on Sunday after the projections were announced. Credit... James Hill for The New York Times PARIS '-- President Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen, the French far-right leader, in the runoff of France's presidential elections, according to projections with 95 percent of the vote counted.
Mr. Macron led with about 27 percent of the vote to Ms. Le Pen's 24 percent, after she benefitted from a late surge that reflected widespread disaffection over rising prices, security and immigration.
With war raging in Ukraine and Western unity likely to be tested as the fighting continues, Ms. Le Pen's strong performance demonstrated the enduring appeal of nationalist and xenophobic currents in Europe. Extreme parties of the right and left took some 51 percent of the vote, a clear sign of the extent of French anger and frustration.
An anti-NATO and more pro-Russia France in the event of an ultimate Le Pen victory would cause deep concern in allied capitals, and could fracture the united trans-Atlantic response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But Mr. Macron, after a lackluster campaign, will go into the second round as the slight favorite, having fared a little better than the latest opinion polls suggested. Some had shown him leading Ms. Le Pen by just two points.
The principled French rejection of Ms. Le Pen's brand of anti-immigrant nationalism has frayed as illiberal politics have spread in both Europe and the United States. She has successfully softened her packaging, if not her fierce conviction that French people must be privileged over foreigners and that the curtain must be drawn on France as a ''land of immigration.''
Ms. Le Pen's ties to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia are close, although she has scrambled in recent weeks to play them down. This month, she was quick to congratulate Viktor Orban, Hungary's nationalist and anti-immigrant leader, on his fourth victory in parliamentary elections.
''I will restore France to order in five years,'' Ms. Le Pen declared to cheering supporters, appealing to all French people to join her in what she called ''a choice of civilization'' in which the ''legitimate preponderance of French language and culture'' would be guaranteed and full ''sovereignty reestablished in all domains.''
The choice confronting French people on April 24 was between ''division, injustice and disorder'' on the one hand, and the ''rallying of French people around social justice and protection,'' she said.
Mr. Macron told flag-waving supporters: ''I want a France in a strong Europe that maintains its alliances with the big democracies in order to defend itself, not a France that, outside Europe, would have as its only allies the populist and xenophobic International. That is not us.''
He added: ''Don't deceive ourselves, nothing is decided, and the debate we will have in the next 15 days is decisive for our country and for Europe.''
'-- Roger Cohen
Image A shop in Paris late last year. Political polls ahead of Sunday's vote showed that an abrupt decline in purchasing power was the top issue for French voters. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times PARIS '-- As President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen head into their second contentious presidential runoff in five years, the election will be decided to a large extent by perceptions of the economy.
A surge in the cost of living has become a major theme of the campaign as Russia's war on Ukraine sends food and energy prices soaring to record levels, pushing inflation in Europe to 7.4 percent, the highest in four decades.
Political polls ahead of Sunday's vote showed that the abrupt decline in purchasing power was by far the top issue for French voters, ahead of security and immigration and the first taste of what European leaders fear if they stake out tougher sanctions on Russia that could hurt their economies even more.
After being criticized for focusing more on Ukraine than on the living conditions of average French people, Mr. Macron has zeroed in on purchasing power, pledging that his first act as president, if re-elected, would be to help vulnerable French households improve their standard of living.
''I speak to people who feel daily insecurity, to those who feel it is difficult to live with dignity despite working hard,'' he told a crowd of jubilant supporters Sunday after making it into the second round with a comfortable margin ahead of Ms. LePen, the far-right leader. ''I want to convince you in the coming days that our project is more solid than that of the extreme right,'' he said.
Before the war in Ukraine, France's economy had been enjoying a robust recovery from coronavirus lockdowns, in part after Mr. Macron authorized around 300 billion euros in spending designed to keep businesses and workers afloat. The economy is growing at a 7 percent pace following a pandemic-induced recession, and unemployment is at a 10-year low of 7.4 percent.
But the dynamics of the recovery have been uneven, and a wealth divide that sparked the Yellow Vest movement in 2018, which brought working class people struggling with low earning power and high taxes into the streets, has grown starker as inflation has surged. Gas prices have topped 2 euros per liter in some parts of France, the equivalent of around $8 a gallon. Food and commodity prices, meanwhile, have jumped to the highest level in decades.
While Mr. Macron sought to prevail on President Putin to reach a cease-fire, Ms. LePen tapped into the worries of average households during her campaign by relentlessly spotlighting the rising cost of living in towns and rural areas where working-class French people have voiced frustration with inequality and precariousness.
Heading into the final round, Ms. LePen's economic platform pivots around promises for increased subsidies for vulnerable households, and features plans for a 10 percent increase in France's monthly minimum wage of 1,603 euros. She is also pledging to slash sales taxes to 5.5 percent from 20 percent on fuel, oil, gas and electricity and has said she would balance France's budget by slashing billions in social spending on ''foreigners.''
Workers under the age of 30 would be exempt from income tax, while the current French retirement age of 62 would be maintained. Speaking Sunday before a boisterous crowd, she also vowed to create jobs and re-industrialize the country by encouraging companies to return to France.
Mr. Macron, for his part, has authorized billions of euros in subsidies in recent months to offset rising costs for households, while continuing to pursue policies that he says are needed to keep the French economy competitive. He has pledged to maintain price caps on gas and power prices put in place since winter, and to index pension payments for inflation starting this summer.
His economic platform also targets ''full employment,'' in part by pressing ahead with a series of pro-business reforms, including increasing the retirement age, cutting taxes and easing labor market rules further following a major overhaul five years ago designed to make it easier for employers to hire and fire.
'-- Liz Alderman
Image Voting on Sunday at City Hall in Versailles, France. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times VERSAILLES, France '-- The French, it is said, vote with their hearts in the first round and with their heads in the second.
But voters in diverse cities near Paris appeared to use both when casting their ballots on Sunday, further evidence that France's two-round voting system encourages unusually strategic thinking.
Twelve candidates were on the ballot. But with polls showing that the second round will most likely be a rematch between President Emmanuel Macron and the far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, voters were already thinking of the showdown set for April 24.
In Versailles, a center of the conservative Roman Catholic vote, the center-right candidate, Val(C)rie P(C)cresse, was the local favorite. But she was in the single digits in most polls.
After voting at City Hall, a couple who gave only their first names '-- Karl, 50, and Sophie, 51 '-- said they had voted for ric Zemmour, the far-right TV pundit who ran an anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim campaign.
''I'm in favor of selective immigration, instead of the current situation where we have immigrants who are seeking to take advantage of the French system,'' said Karl, who works in real estate. He added that he had voted for Mr. Macron in 2017, but that he had been disappointed by the president's policies toward immigration and his failure to overhaul the pension system.
This time, he and Sophie, a legal consultant, said they would support Ms. Le Pen in the runoff because they believed that she had gained credibility.
For Gr(C)goire Pique, 30, an engineer concerned about the environment, his choice had been Yannick Jadot, the Green candidate. But with Mr. Jadot languishing in the polls, Mr. Pique endorsed the longtime leftist leader, Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, ranked third in most polls.
In the second round, Mr. Pique said, he planned to reluctantly vote for Mr. Macron to block Ms. Le Pen.
''I don't like this principle,'' he said, ''but I'll do it.''
About 10 miles from Versailles, in Trappes, a working-class city with a large Muslim population, similar calculations were taking place.
Image A voter casting his ballot on Sunday in Trappes, France. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times Georget Savonni, 64, a retired transportation worker, said he voted with his heart for Ms. P(C)cresse, even though he knew that she had little chance of making it into the second round. Two Sundays from now, he said, he planned to vote reluctantly for Mr. Macron, also to stop Ms. Le Pen.
''I agree with most of Macron's economic programs, and I feel he handled the pandemic very well,'' Mr. Savonni said. ''But I feel he doesn't respect people and that he's arrogant.''
Bilel Ayed, 22, a university student, wanted to support a minor left-leaning candidate, but endorsed Mr. M(C)lenchon, the leading candidate on the left. In the second round, he said, even though he believed that Ms. Le Pen, as president, would be far more terrible for France than Mr. Macron, he was unable to forgive the president for what he said was a crackdown on personal freedoms, like the violent suppression of the anti-government Yellow Vest movement.
''I'm not voting in the second round,'' he said. ''I'm staying home.''
'-- Norimitsu Onishi
Image President Emmanuel Macron on stage in Paris after the first round results were announced Sunday. Credit... Benoit Tessier/Reuters PARIS '-- Appearing before a packed conference hall in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron thanked his supporters but warned against complacency ahead of a second round of voting in France's elections.
''Nothing is settled yet, and the debate that we are going to have over the next 15 days is decisive for our country and for Europe,'' Mr. Macron told the cheering crowd.
Amid growing concerns in France over inflation and purchasing power, he urged his supporters to ''spare no effort'' in convincing the French that ''the only credible project against a high cost of living is ours'' and vowed to convince those who stayed home or voted for ''extremes'' on Sunday that ''our project brings stronger answers than that of the far-right.''
Waiting for the president to arrive earlier Sunday evening, the atmosphere was one of relief about Mr. Macron's accession with a comfortable margin to the second round of the elections.
Holding a French flag, Themis Astier, a first-time voter, said she worried about the number of votes that Marine Le Pen received but still firmly believed that Mr. Macron's political agenda was the solution against the far right.
''I share his values and what he put in place,'' said Ms. Astier, 18, a business major in Paris, whose parents are also supporters of Mr. Macron. ''He promised to bring the French together and that has been complicated.''
''The 'anyone-but-Macron' mentality encourages the rise of extremes,'' she added. ''Le Pen's discourse is frightening.''
Helene Ananga, 38, from Cameroon, is not a French citizen but she is proud that 58 family members, including her two children, were all voting for Mr. Macron.
Dressed in a T-shirt that read ''All With Macron,'' Ms. Ananga stood, holding on to a crutch, at the front of the room so she could get a close look at the president.
''I am handicapped and Macron did so much for us. He makes me feel safe,'' she said. ''He is the only one who can beat Marine.''
Ladifetou Ndachingam, 42, also from Cameroon, was waving three flags: a French one, a European one and a ''Nous tous'' one, Mr. Macron's slogan. She is a volunteer with Mr. Macron's campaign team in the 12th district of Paris: ''Mr. Macron loves everyone, he's big-hearted,'' she said. She warned that if Marine Le Pen were to win, ''I can pack and go back to Cameroon.''
Lisa Boveda, 22, a business school student who was voting for the first time in a presidential election, said, ''I am relieved and so happy about the result.''
''We proved that France doesn't vote for extremes,'' she added. ''The far right didn't rise because of Emmanuel Macron. Covid and so many crises happened and he handled them very well. He did very well with the economy and unemployment. It's unfair to say his policies helped the rise of the far right.''
'-- Aida Alami and Ad¨le Cordonnier
Image Inside Marine Le Pen's headquarters awaiting results on Sunday. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times PARIS '-- When Marine Le Pen's face appeared on a large screen at her headquarters in Paris, supporters burst into applause, shouting, ''Marine president!''
For the hundreds of supporters who had flocked to a chalet-like building in eastern Paris in hopes of celebrating Ms. Le Pen's qualification for the second round of the French presidential election, early projections from French news cables about the first-round vote Sunday were both a relief and a milestone.
Ms. Le Pen, the candidate of the far right, will face Emmanuel Macron, the French president, in a runoff vote that is essentially a rematch of the 2017 presidential election. On Sunday, early projections showed her finishing in second place behind Mr. Macron.
Speaking 30 minutes after the release of the projections, Ms. Le Pen described her confrontation with Mr. Macron as ''a fundamental choice between two opposing visions of life.'' She pitted what she said was her focus on social justice and economic output against the ''division, injustice and disorder'' imposed by Mr. Macron.
The crowd listening to Ms. Le Pen was ecstatic. Shouts of ''We did it!'' and ''We're going to win!'' interrupted her speech, while dozens of supporters waved French flags.
In the back of the room, supporters sipped glasses of champagne and sampled meat terrines laid out on white tablecloths, while waiters moved about the room carrying trays full of appetizers.
''It will be a tough fight in the second round, but she has a good chance of winning,'' said Martine Cl(C)ment-Launay, a Le Pen supporter.
Ms. Cl(C)ment-Launay said Ms. Le Pen had improved since the last presidential election, when she floundered against Mr. Macron in a second-round debate, appearing tense and inconsistent in her answers. ''Marine has grown up,'' she said. ''She is able to answer with a smile, with arguments, with figures.''
The number of votes Ms. Le Pen received stems in part from her success in sanitizing her public image. Over the past months, she has opened up about her personal life and softened her populist economic agenda to gain sympathy and credibility among more mainstream voters.
But it was her decision to stick to the rising cost of living that also likely attracted voters in the last weeks of the campaign, as fuel and other prices spiked with the war in Ukraine.
Ms. Le Pen's desire to conceal her radical proposals on immigration and security in order to attract more mainstream voters was evident in her speech on Sunday. In it, she barely spoke about immigration. Instead, she spoke of ''purchasing power'' and ''social, territorial, institutional, cultural, medical and digital fracture.''
Ms. Le Pen already received the backing of Eric Zemmour, another far-right candidate, who called on his supporters to vote for her in the second round. Recent polls have shown her trailing Mr. Macron by only a few percentage points in a runoff.
''She will benefit from a big transfer of votes,'' said Fr(C)d(C)ric Sarmiento, a Le Pen activist, pointing to supporters of Mr. Zemmour, but also some on the left who, according to polls, will support Ms. Le Pen in the second round, either because of her ideas or to prevent Mr. Macron from being re-elected.
'-- Constant M(C)heut
Image President Emmanuel Macron visted a school in Melun, about an hour's drive from Paris, last year. On Election Day, many residents described feeling disenchanted with the campaign and candidates. Credit... Pool photo by Thibault Camus MELUN, France '-- Returning from a quick grocery trip, his black hoodie pulled over his head, Balla Gueye said he was not in an Election Day mood.
''Sure, I'll go vote this afternoon,'' Mr. Gueye, 31, said, as he pulled off his headphones. ''But I'll go reluctantly. It's an election that divides more than it unites.''
Mr. Gueye lives in Melun, a city of 40,000 about an hour's drive from Paris. Melun has long been at the crossroads of changes in French life: Remnants of medieval ramparts still run through the city, which became an important industrial center in the late 19th century. But on Sunday, many of its residents no longer seemed enthusiastic about shaping the county's future.
''We don't have many expectations,'' said Floriane Vayssieres, 68, as she was walking her German shepherd through the city center's cobble streets.
Ms. Vayssieres said she was just coming back from a polling station where she had cast a ballot for Jean Lassalle, an eccentric candidate from a farming background known for his passionate defense of rural towns. ''He's the only one who talks about ordinary people,'' she said.
Other passers-by in Melun struck a disenchanted tone when asked about the election campaign, describing it as ''voiceless'' or ''useless.''
Yolande, a retired nurse who declined to give her last name ''because this election climate is too divisive,'' said she had gone to vote ''out of civic duty.''
A baguette tucked under her arm, she described herself as ''a political junkie.'' But, this year, she said, ''I thought it was a sad campaign,'' adding that she ''didn't hear any prospects for improvement in the candidates' speeches.''
Another retiree, Monique Gandy, 84, said the campaign ''had not been that striking.'' She struggled to remember any specific theme that emerged in the election race.
This year's election campaign has been largely muted by the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, leaving little space for other themes to emerge in the public debate. The first months of the campaign were marked by polarized rhetoric on immigration and security '-- a characteristic that many residents in Melun deplored.
''It seemed like they were all fixated on immigration,'' Ms. Gandy said, pointing to campaign posters that were displayed near the polling station she had just left.
Mr. Gueye '-- who said he would probably vote for Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, a far-left candidate '-- said that in previous elections, ''There was at least a thorough debate between the candidates.''
''This time,'' he said, ''it was simply missing.''
'-- Constant M(C)heut
Image Polling booths on Sunday in Trappes, France. Voter turnout for the election is the lowest France has seen in decades. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times With hours to go before the polls close on Sunday, turnout at 5 p.m. in the first round of France's presidential election was at 65 percent '-- its lowest in decades.
That figure was about five points lower than in 2017, when nearly 70 percent of voters had cast their ballot by that same time. Over 48 million people are on French voting rolls, and they have until 7 p.m., or 8 p.m. in France's largest cities, to vote. In France, there are no mail-in ballots and no early voting, although some voting stations in overseas territories and consulates abroad open on Saturday to account for time differences.
Figures from France's Interior Ministry showed that Paris was one of the areas where turnout had fallen the most since 2017 '-- a bad omen for President Emmanuel Macron, whose voter base skews urban and who came out ahead in the French capital five years ago.
Turnout nationwide was also lower than in any presidential election since 2002. That year, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder of France's main far-right party '-- now led by his daughter, Marine Le Pen '-- squeezed into the runoff against President Jacques Chirac thanks to record-high abstention, shocking the nation.
But there were signs that some voting stations could buck that trend. On Twitter, some voters in Paris shared pictures and videos of interminable lines, although it was unclear how widespread they were. Others complained that the official website used to find one's voting station was suffering outages because of a swamp of requests.
At a kindergarten in the 14th arrondissement of Paris on Sunday, a long line of voters slowly shuffled into a small gymnasium where the ballot boxes were set up. When one voter expressed surprise at the size of the crowd, a poll worker wearily replied: ''It's been like this since 8 a.m.''
The 12 candidates in the race, who are barred from campaigning on election weekend, beamed for cameras as they cast their ballots but said little. Several voted in the French capital, while Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen both voted in northern France.
Mr. Macron cast his ballot in Le Touquet, a seaside resort where he and his wife have a residence, while Ms. Le Pen voted in the town of H(C)nin-Beaumont, one of her party's strongholds, in a district where she was elected to France's Parliament in 2017.
'-- Aurelien Breeden
Image Figures released by the French Interior Ministry showed that midday turnout was slightly lower than in the previous presidential election, with about 25 percent of voters casting a ballot. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times MELUN, France '-- On Sunday, candidates and experts alike were looking at one key figure that may determine the path of France's presidential election: voter turnout.
Figures released at noon by the French Interior Ministry showed that by then turnout was slightly lower than in the most recent presidential election, with about 25 percent of voters having cast a ballot, compared with 28 percent at the same point in 2017. Although that is the lowest rate since 2002, the comparison with the previous election also suggested that voters have not massively shunned the voting booth, as many experts feared.
In Melun, a medium-sized city south of Paris, some voters seemed to lack enthusiasm, and others said they had been disillusioned by politicians they no longer trust.
''I'm still hesitating between putting in a blank ballot and voting for Val(C)rie P(C)cresse,'' said Sylvie Zocly, 41, who was just a few feet away from a polling station, referring to the center-right candidate. ''It's quite messy in my head,'' she said.
Like other residents of Montaigu, an underprivileged neighborhood in northern Melun, where grim high-rises dominate and the population is largely made up of North African immigrants, Ms. Zocly said she was disappointed with the tone of the campaign. She said she believed the debate had been muted by President Emmanuel Macron's refusal to engage with the other candidates and overwhelmed by security and immigration issues.
Karim Hachemi, who had just cast a dispassionate glance at campaign posters on display near the polling station, said he would not vote this year. ''I don't identify with the candidates,'' he said. ''They don't appeal to me '-- they lie a lot.''
Mr. Hachemi, a 29-year-old computer engineer, said many around him had the same feeling and would not participate in Sunday's vote. ''I'll watch Netflix instead and play computer games.''
Marine Le Pen, a far-right candidate, and Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, a far-left candidate, are the candidates most likely to suffer if voters don't turn out, as their support bases '-- made up of young and working-class voters '-- are often the ones likeliest to stay home on Election Day.
A recent study by the polling firm Ipsos estimated that around 30 percent of voters could sit out this year, an eight-point increase from the previous presidential election. But the ministry's midday turnout numbers '-- showing only a three-point drop in participation from 2017 '-- suggest that the overall picture may not be so bleak.
Among poll workers in Montaigu, where only about 20 percent of voters have turned out in recent local elections, the mood was even rather optimistic.
Alain Dejouy, a mustachioed assessor who was standing next to a ballot box where dozens of blue voting envelopes where lying, said that about 15 percent of the neighborhood's voters had already cast a ballot by midday, compared with 10 percent in the previous presidential election.
''We've done really well!'' Mr. Dejouy grinned.
'-- Constant M(C)heut
Image Destroyed buildings this month in the small town of Borodianka, near Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Credit... Ivor Prickett for The New York Times With the pandemic disrupting the organization of rallies and the war in Ukraine shifting people's attention to atrocities unfolding on the European continent, most of the French presidential candidates have struggled to drive the public debate in this year's election.
Instead, most of the campaign's talking points have stemmed from events unrelated to the election or were reactions to issues introduced by the entry into the race of the polarizing newcomer ric Zemmour.
The campaign started with a bang in the fall when Mr. Zemmour, a hard-right TV pundit, announced his presidential bid. In the early months of the race, his meteoric rise in the polls ensured that the campaign would be fought almost exclusively on issues important to the right.
For weeks, other candidates were forced to react to Mr. Zemmour's hard-line views on immigration, Islam and identity. Leaders of the mainstream center-right Republican Party even picked up on the phrase ''great replacement,'' a racist conspiracy theory popularized by Mr. Zemmour that white Christian populations are being replaced by nonwhite immigrants.
But it is the effect of the war in Ukraine on the prices of energy and consumer goods that has most fueled voters' concerns '-- and candidates' promises.
Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader, and Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, the top far-left candidate, pushed hard on this concern, promising to impose price controls on basic necessities and slash taxes on energy. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron promised to raise minimum pensions and give a tax-free bonus to employees this summer.
The candidates' views on pension changes '-- a perennial issue in France '-- also fueled the public debate in the last weeks of the campaign.
But many other topics of discussion during the campaign emerged from outside the candidates' circles. For instance, a reporter's investigation on patient abuse in nursing homes forced a debate on elder care, and the publication of a scathing Senate report on the government's use of consulting firms put Mr. Macron on the defensive.
Even more surprising, despite the growing concern in France for environmental causes, climate issues have barely been discussed. So much so that talks about the environment at some point focused on a Netflix movie that went viral in France: ''Don't Look Up,'' a satire of political and media indifference to the climate crisis.
'-- Constant M(C)heut
Profile
Image President Emmanuel Macron speaking to supporters at a campaign rally this month in Nanterre, on the outskirts of Paris. He has learned the hard way that reforming France is notoriously difficult. Credit... Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times PARIS '-- Five years ago, Emmanuel Macron, a bold upstart with a Bonapartist streak, upended French politics to become president at 39, promising to put an end to the sterile divisions of left and right, fast-forward France into the technological age, and forge a more united and powerful Europe.
The son of two medical doctors from northern France, a product of the country's elite schools, a glib speaker forever refining ideas, Mr. Macron never lacked for boldness. At a time when revived nationalism had produced Brexit and the Trump presidency, he bet on a strong commitment to the European Union '-- and swept aside his opponents with an incisive panache.
Europe, and its liberal democratic model, proved to be the fixed point of an otherwise adjustable credo. Mr. Macron began with a strong pro-business push, simplifying the labyrinthine labor code, eliminating a wealth tax, courting foreign investment and vigorously promoting a start-up culture.
A former investment banker in a country with a healthy distrust of capitalism, he inevitably became known as ''the president of the rich.'' Reforming France is notoriously difficult, as many presidents have found.
Confronted by enormous protests against planned pension overhauls and by the coronavirus pandemic, Mr. Macron ended up with a ''whatever it costs'' policy to support workers through the crisis, declaring at one point that ''we have nationalized salaries.'' Debt ballooned. But the virus was beaten back; growth shot up to 7 percent this year.
In the end, Macronism, as it's known here, remains a mystery, an elastic and disruptive political doctrine depending less on content than the charisma of its loquacious creator. The Parliament and political parties often feel marginal.
Mr. Macron's back-and-forth on many issues '-- skeptical of nuclear power before he was for it, strongly free-market before discovering ''solidarity'' '-- has earned him the sobriquet of the ''on the other hand'' president.
Yet he is also a radical thinker, a contrarian who will speak his mind, as in 2019 when he said NATO had gone through a ''brain death.'' The comment reflected his belief that the end of the Cold War should have produced a new strategic architecture in Europe, ideally integrating Russia in some way. He believes passionately that Europe must develop ''strategic autonomy'' if it is not to be sidelined in the 21st century.
Russia's war in Ukraine has prodded Europe toward the unity Mr. Macron seeks, even as it has raised the question of whether the president had been na¯ve in his persistent outreach to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
How, and in the name of what, and against whom, could Russia be ''integrated'' into European security?
Accused at the beginning of his presidency of aloofness, so much so that he was compared with ''Jupiter,'' the king of the gods, Mr. Macron learned painfully to listen, especially to those who struggle to get to the end of the month, only to revert to a strange detachment during the current campaign that allowed his longtime rival, the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, to turn an election that seemed won for Mr. Macron into a close-run thing.
'-- Roger Cohen
Profile
Image Marine Le Pen with supporters of her political party at the end of a campaign rally this month in Stiring-Wendel, in northeastern France. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times It would be difficult to question the longstanding anti-immigrant, ethnonationalist credentials of Marine Le Pen, the veteran politician whose family has defined far-right politics in France for the past two generations.
Ms. Le Pen's established status on the far right allowed her to wage a low-key campaign focusing on the economy and the rising cost of living, and while she appeared to flounder in the early months of the presidential race, the strategy paid off after the war in Ukraine began and led to an increase in the price of fuel and other goods.
According to polls, she was nipping at the heels of President Emmanuel Macron, her opponent in the 2017 runoff, by only a couple of percentage points, in what would be a significant rise over her performance five years ago.
Voters said that Ms. Le Pen understood the difficulties of everyday French people more than any other candidate, the polls showed, especially in comparison with Mr. Macron. His image as an arrogant, out-of-touch president of the rich was reinforced by recent revelations surrounding his government's widespread use of McKinsey and other highly paid, politically unaccountable consultants.
In an interview last year with The New York Times, Ms. Le Pen said she felt that the French did not know her because of her intense reserve, even though she grew up in the public eye and was preparing for her third run for the presidency.
In an ultimately successful makeover strategy that tried to blunt her image as a far-right ideologue, she began opening up to the news media, talking first about her love of cats and then about traumas suffered growing up with a family name long identified with xenophobia, racism, antisemitism and populism.
She changed her party's name from the National Front to the National Rally, in an ''undemonizing'' strategy meant to distance it from its founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, her father.
And she tweaked her party's positions to try to widen her support beyond the working class, dropping her plan to exit the eurozone, an idea that troubled many middle-class conservatives.
But the core of her anti-immigrant program was little changed, consisting of giving her supporters tax cuts and more services that would be financed by taking them away from immigrants. While she said she made a distinction between Islam and Islamism, she said she would make it illegal for Muslims to wear head scarves in public.
Ms. Le Pen's campaign also benefited from an overall shift that pushed France further to the right. More unexpectedly, her image softened further thanks to the candidacy of ric Zemmour, a television pundit who adopted extreme positions that were to the right of Ms. Le Pen's.
'-- Norimitsu Onishi
Profile
Image Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon projected onstage as a hologram on April 5 in Le Havre, France. Mr. Melenchon used holograms to address multiple cities from Lille, in northern France. Credit... Sameer Al-Doumy/Agence France-Presse '-- Getty Images A skilled orator and veteran politician, Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, the leading left-wing candidate, has surged recently in voter surveys, giving him hope that he can beat poll predictions of a rematch of the last presidential election, when Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen faced off in the second round.
Mr. M(C)lenchon is now comfortably in third place, with about 16 percent of the vote, far more than his right-wing competitors ric Zemmour and Val(C)rie P(C)cresse. But he is still lagging Ms. Le Pen by some 5 percentage points, making his qualification for a runoff unlikely.
Mr. M(C)lenchon is a former Trotskyist and longtime member of the Socialist Party who left it in 2008 after accusing it of veering to the center. He is a perennial but divisive figure in French politics, with a reputation for irascibility. This is his third run for the presidency, after having missed the second round by only 2 percentage points in the last election.
French voters' recent focus on rising prices and economic insecurity '-- both aftershocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine '-- has largely benefited Mr. M(C)lenchon, whose unabashedly left-wing economic policies, including a promise to impose price controls on some basic necessities, are resonating more than ever.
Mr. M(C)lenchon's platform also includes lowering the legal retirement age to 60 from 62, introducing a monthly minimum wage of about $1,500, and making enormous investments in green energy.
To reach the second round, Mr. M(C)lenchon has appealed in recent days to all left-wing voters to support him, in what he says is the only ''efficient vote.'' Other political forces on the left are in disarray, including the once mighty Socialist Party and the Greens, whose candidates have failed to resonate among potential voters.
But leaders of these parties have resisted rallying to Mr. M(C)lenchon's campaign, castigating him for pro-Russia comments before the invasion of Ukraine and saying his fiery nature made him unfit to govern.
'-- Constant M(C)heut
Profile
Image The far-right presidential candidate ric Zemmour, who has described himself as the savior of a country facing a civilizational threat, during a campaign rally last month in Paris. Credit... Bertrand Guay/Agence France-Presse '-- Getty Images ric Zemmour, a far-right TV pundit and a leader of the culture wars that have entrenched France on the political right, dominated the early months of the presidential race by setting the debate around immigration, Islam and national identity. Polls even briefly gave him a shot at making it into the runoff in France's two-round elections.
But Mr. Zemmour began declining in the polls after the war in Ukraine began and the effort to impose sanctions on Russia shifted voters' attention to the rising cost of living. He failed to reposition himself, especially against his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen, and at under 10 percent in most polls, he is unlikely to make it past the first round on Sunday.
A longtime political journalist, Mr. Zemmour, 63, wrote best sellers in the past decade denouncing the supposed decline of a nation whose Christian roots were being undermined by Muslim immigrants and their descendants. But it was his starring role as a commentator on CNews, a Fox-like news network on which he began appearing in 2019, that made him enough of a household name to launch his candidacy for president last fall.
Mr. Zemmour, who has been convicted of inciting racial hatred, describes himself as the savior of France facing a civilizational threat. He has pledged to stop immigration, even rejecting refugees from the war in Ukraine, and also proposed expelling immigrants as part of ''remigration.''
Mr. Zemmour, who is Jewish and whose parents came from Algeria, pushed to rehabilitate France's collaborationist government and its leader, Marshal Philippe P(C)tain. He won support among traditional conservatives, especially those drawn by Mr. Zemmour's strong defense of Roman Catholicism.
Despite his flagging campaign, Mr. Zemmour's influence on French politics could prove enduring. He widened the contours of what is politically acceptable to say in French politics '-- frontally attacking Islam and bringing into the mainstream previously taboo terms and concepts like the ''great replacement,'' a conspiracy theory according to which white French people are being intentionally replaced by Muslim Africans.
In the end, Mr. Zemmour's main effect on the presidential campaign may have been unintentional. His positions were so extreme that he helped Ms. Le Pen appear moderate by comparison and allowed her to carry out an image makeover that, according to polls, has made her a stronger candidate against President Emmanuel Macron.
'-- Norimitsu Onishi
Image President Emmanuel Macron, right, meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Moscow, in February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Credit... Sputnik/via Agence France-Presse '-- Getty Images PARIS '-- Nobody can accuse President Emmanuel Macron of stinting on efforts to avert, defuse or stop Russia's war in Ukraine. He has clocked at least 17 phone conversations with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in the past four months, one personal meeting in Moscow and so many hours of discussion with his own aides that he has had scant time for the small matter of a presidential election in less than two weeks.
In the same period, he has spoken more than two dozen times to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, and met with him in Kyiv and Brussels. On Feb. 25, he spoke twice in a single day to the Ukrainian leader, something he also did with Mr. Putin on Feb 11. All with a view, Mr. Macron said, ''to securing a cease-fire and then the total withdrawal of troops.''
If diplomacy is measured by perseverance, Mr. Macron is a supreme diplomat. If it is measured by effective realism, the verdict appears less favorable. Up to now, on the face of it, he has achieved very little through his numerous calls and meetings. The war is into its second month with an untold number of dead. Millions of Ukrainian refugees have fled westward.
Mr. Zelensky, to judge by a recent interview in The Economist, has been underwhelmed. Asked about Mr. Macron's statement at a recent NATO meeting that delivering tanks to Ukraine represented a red line not to be crossed, Mr. Zelensky said France took this position because ''they are afraid of Russia. And that's it.''
In relations with Russia, it is less fear that seems to inhabit Mr. Macron than a kind of romantic fascination with the country and its culture, as well as an intellectual conviction that Europe will not be stable until Russia is integrated into some new security architecture that reflects the Cold War's end.
'-- Roger Cohen
Image The crowd at a speech by Marine Le Pen in Stiring-Wendel, northeastern France, on April 1. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times Even before a single ballot was counted, a clear winner had already emerged from the race.
The French right.
Despite a late surge by Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, the leading left-wing candidate, virtually the entire French campaign had been fought on the right and the far right, whose candidates dominated the polls and whose themes and talking points '-- issues of national identity, immigration and Islam '-- had dominated the political debate. The far right had even become the champion of pocketbook issues, traditionally the left's turf.
President Emmanuel Macron himself pivoted to the right so consistently to confront the challenge that there is even discussion now of whether he should be regarded as a center-right president, though he emerged from a government run by the now-moribund Socialists in 2017.
''The great movement to the right '-- that's done, it's over,'' said Gal Brustier, a political analyst and former adviser to left-wing politicians. ''It won't set off in the other direction for 20 years.''
Marine Le Pen, the leading candidate on the right, and her party for decades softened the ground for the shift. But the right's recent political ascendancy follows many years in which conservatives have successfully waged a cultural battle '-- greatly inspired by the American right and often adopting its codes and strategies to attract a more youthful audience.
The French right in recent months has done more than just wield the idea of ''wokisme'' to effectively stifle the left and blunt what it sees as the threat of a ''woke culture'' from American campuses. It has also busily established a cultural presence after years with few, if any, media outlets in the mainstream.
Today the French right has burst through social barriers and is represented by its own version of a Fox-style television news channel, CNews, an expanding network of think tanks, and multiple social media platforms with a substantial and increasingly younger following.
'-- Norimitsu Onishi and Constant M(C)heut
Image Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon casting his ballot on Sunday in Marseille. Credit... Denis Balibouse/Reuters PARIS '-- Anand Shah stepped into a voting booth near the Marche d'Aligre, one of Paris's oldest outdoor food markets, and paused before finally slipping a ballot for Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, the main left-wing candidate running for the French presidency, into a pale blue election envelope.
Mr. Shah said he hadn't wanted to vote for Mr. M(C)lenchon. His first choice was Philippe Poutou, a far-left politician, whose ideas to save the environment and take care of France's working classes held strong appeal.
But above all, Mr. Shah didn't want to see a rightist politician as president of France. For him and others buzzing around the market on Sunday, a vote for Mr. M(C)lenchon was a strategic move not only to keep Marine Le Pen at bay but also to oust President Emmanuel Macron, who has shifted to the right on issues like immigration and security during his presidency.
''Macron duped so many people for five years,'' said Mr. Shah, 31, an information technology project manager for a French consulting firm. ''The way he advertised himself in 2017 has very little to do with what has been done,'' he added. ''He has tacked so far to the right that he's part of the right.''
While all eyes have been focused on the swift rise of Ms. Le Pen, the far-right candidate, Mr. M(C)lenchon, 70, the leader of the far-left France Unbowed party, has witnessed a comeback in recent weeks. A final victory for Mr. M(C)lenchon still seems remote, but he headed into the first round of voting on Saturday comfortably in third place with about 14 percent in the polls, far ahead of his competitors on the left and within a few points of Ms. Le Pen.
As Mr. Macron has drifted further right during his presidency to steal ground from Ms. Le Pen, a number of voters who had previously backed him are pivoting, albeit hesitantly, to Mr. M(C)lenchon, a divisive personality who has softened some of his more radical edges while sharpening his left-wing platform to put issues of inequality and the cost of living at its center.
Mr. M(C)lenchon ''has a platform that focuses on people and their concerns about purchasing power,'' said Djamel Aminou, 39, an engineer, citing pledges to increase the minimum wage and lower the retirement age to 60 from 62.
''I don't want Le Pen as president, and I don't want Macron to be re-elected,'' he said. ''On the streets, Macron is seen as out of touch and he's very unpopular. Macron and Le Pen are almost the same. We need change in France.''
'-- Liz Alderman
Image Candidates' posters in Stiring-Wendel, in northeastern France. Credit... Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times France's presidents '-- who have formidable powers at their disposal and set much of the country's agenda '-- are elected directly by the people to five-year terms in a two-round voting system. This year, the first round is being held on Sunday, and the second round on April 24.
A candidate who gets an absolute majority of votes in the first round of voting is elected outright, but that has never occurred in the nearly six decades since France started choosing its presidents by a direct popular vote. Instead, a runoff is usually held between the top two candidates.
Who is running? President Emmanuel Macron is seeking a second term. He has been accused of using his status as a wartime leader and Europe's diplomat in chief to avoid debating his opponents, with some political analysts worrying that the lopsided campaign has lacked substance.
Mr. Macron had been leading the polls, but the race has opened up recently with a surge from his main challenger, Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader with an anti-European Union, anti-NATO and pro-Russia platform that would reverberate globally if she won.
Other candidates include Jean-Luc M(C)lenchon, the left-wing candidate best positioned to reach the runoff; Val(C)rie P(C)cresse, the mainstream conservative candidate; and ric Zemmour, a far-right writer, pundit and television star.
Image Mr. Macron speaking in Nanterre, on the outskirts of Paris, on April 2. Credit... Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times What is at stake? France, with more than 67 million people, is the world's seventh-largest economy, the world's most visited country, one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and a nuclear power. It is a founding member of the European Union and a key driver of its policy.
While right-wing forces have largely won France's culture wars in recent years, voter surveys show that French voters are now primarily concerned with the growing cost of living. Broad disillusionment with politics has also emerged as a major source of concern, with worries that this election could see the lowest voter turnout for a presidential race in decades.
How does the French election work? On Election Day, the French news media will work with pollsters to publish projected results at 8 p.m. based on preliminary vote counts. That will give a good indication of who is expected to make it into the second round. but if the race is close, projections might not become clear until later. Official results will be available on the Interior Ministry website.
Before the second round of voting, he two runoff candidates will face off in a televised debate. In 2017, Ms. Le Pen's defeat was partly attributed to a disastrous debate performance
Correction:April 11, 2022
An earlier version of this post referred imprecisely to the French election of 1965. That was the first time that a president was elected in a direct ballot; it was not the case that a candidate was elected without a runoff. That has not happened yet.
'-- Aurelien Breeden