July 3rd • 3h 26m
Shownotes
Every new episode of No Agenda is accompanied by a comprehensive list of shownotes curated by Adam while preparing for the show. Clips played by the hosts during the show can also be found here.
"Universal injunctions" and "birthright citizenship" are on the ropes BOTG Rob
As predicted, the plaintiffs in the “birthright
citizenship” cases have started moving for class-action certification.
Unlike nationwide “universal injunctions,” nationwide classes are allowed.
I think their odds of winning class certification are good, and once that
happens, they’ll be able to get injunctive relief on behalf of the
entire class. All they need to do is to get one nationwide class certified in one of
the many cases they’ve filed. The question is whether federal judges
will short-circuit Rule 23 and just spit out class certifications like a
Gatling gun. Judge Boasberg did that with the Venezuelans.
Key Changes to Medicaid
Work Requirements for Medicaid Expansion Enrollees:
Provision: Starting December 31, 2026, adults aged 19–64 enrolled in Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion (covering adults up to 138% of the federal poverty level, or $21,597 for an individual in 2025) must work, volunteer, or attend school for at least 80 hours per month to maintain eligibility. Exemptions include pregnant women, caregivers of children under 14 (Senate version; House version exempts parents of dependent children), seniors, and people with disabilities.
Verification: States must verify compliance at application and renewal, with some requiring monthly or semi-annual reporting. Non-compliant individuals face disenrollment after 30 days and are ineligible for ACA Marketplace premium tax credits.
Impact: The CBO estimates work requirements will account for the largest share of Medicaid savings ($344 billion over 10 years) and cause 4.8 million people to lose coverage by 2034 due to administrative burdens and non-compliance, even among those already working. Studies from states like Arkansas show work requirements led to coverage losses without significant employment gains.
Increased Eligibility Redeterminations:
Provision: States must verify eligibility for ACA expansion enrollees every six months, up from annually, and impose stricter verification processes, including address checks and cross-referencing with other data sources.
Impact: This is expected to increase administrative barriers, leading to coverage losses, particularly for older adults and people with disabilities. The CBO estimates this will save $53.2 billion over 10 years.
Cost-Sharing Requirements:
Provision: States must impose co-payments of up to $35 for certain medical services (excluding primary care, mental health, or substance abuse treatment) for expansion enrollees with incomes between 100% and 138% of the federal poverty level ($15,650–$21,597 for an individual in 2025). The Senate version allows higher co-pays for non-emergency ER visits.
Impact: This could deter low-income individuals from seeking care, as studies show even small co-pays reduce utilization. The CBO estimates $13 billion in savings. Unpaid co-pays may increase uncompensated care costs for providers.
Reduction in Retroactive Coverage:
Provision: Retroactive Medicaid coverage, which currently covers medical expenses up to three months before enrollment, is reduced to one month starting December 31, 2026.
Impact: This could increase medical debt for vulnerable groups like pregnant women and older adults, saving $6.3 billion over 10 years.
Restrictions on Provider Taxes:
Provision: The bill limits states’ ability to impose taxes on healthcare providers (e.g., hospitals, nursing homes), which fund state Medicaid programs. The Senate version lowers the provider tax cap from 6% to 3.5% by 2032 in expansion states and imposes a moratorium on new taxes.
Impact: This is projected to cut $375 billion in Medicaid spending, threatening funding for rural hospitals, which rely on these taxes. The CBO estimates 400,000 people could lose coverage due to reduced state funding. A $25–50 billion rural hospital stabilization fund was added to mitigate closures, but critics argue it’s insufficient.
Moratorium on Enrollment Streamlining Rules:
Provision: Biden-era rules to simplify Medicaid enrollment and renewal are delayed until 2035, increasing administrative barriers. This includes pausing automatic enrollment for low-income Medicare beneficiaries into Medicare Savings Programs (MSPs).
Impact: The CBO estimates $167.3 billion in savings and 1.3 million dual-eligible (Medicaid and Medicare) beneficiaries losing Medicaid, increasing out-of-pocket costs for premiums and cost-sharing.
Enhanced Verification and Program Integrity:
Provision: New requirements include monthly checks to ensure providers aren’t excluded from other states’ Medicaid programs, verification of enrollee Social Security numbers via a centralized CMS database, and elimination of the “reasonable opportunity period” for verifying immigrant status.
Impact: These measures aim to reduce fraud but may lead to coverage losses due to administrative errors. The CBO estimates $17.4 billion in savings.
Reduced Federal Funding for Expansion States:
Provision: States covering immigrants with state-only funds face reduced federal matching rates (e.g., a 10% cut for expansion enrollees). The Senate considered an amendment to phase out the 90% federal match for expansion enrollees, shifting $93 billion in costs to states by 2034.
Impact: This could force states to scale back or drop Medicaid expansion, with nine states having “trigger laws” to end expansion if federal funding drops. Up to 10.6 million could lose coverage if all states drop expansion.
Restrictions on Specific Services:
House Version: Prohibits Medicaid funding for gender-affirming care and Planned Parenthood services (even non-abortion services like cancer screenings). The Senate removed the gender-affirming care ban due to Senate reconciliation rules.
Impact: Defunding Planned Parenthood could close 30% of its clinics, reducing access to reproductive health services for Medicaid enrollees.
Coverage for Non-Citizens:
Provision: The bill eliminates coverage for certain non-citizens, except legal residents, specific Cuban immigrants, and those under Compacts of Free Association. The Senate parliamentarian rejected a broader ban on non-citizen coverage.
Impact: This could reduce coverage for legal immigrants, including refugees and asylees, increasing uncompensated care costs.
The Musk Op
And where Israel comes into it is he seems to be captured by Mosad. Why not release the Epstein files. Simple answer: because Trump is clearly in them. Who is Epstein? The man Trump was friends with for a decade who suddenly became imprisoned during the first Trump term, who "killed himself". When asked about releasing the Epstein files from Fox News, Trump's answer was shaky. He doesn't want to look bad. He won't release them, so instead he continues to cater to Mosad. They got the dirt on him.
The Elon Epstein Op
Elon Musk Chinese revenue
Estimating the exact revenue Elon Musk's companies receive annually from Chinese or Chinese-related sources is challenging due to limited public disclosure and the complexity of global supply chains. However, based on available information, I can provide an informed analysis focusing on Musk's major companies—Tesla, SpaceX, X Corp, Neuralink, The Boring Company, and xAI—with a particular emphasis on Tesla, which has significant operations in China.
### Tesla
Tesla's operations in China are substantial, primarily through its Shanghai Gigafactory, which is its largest manufacturing facility. Here’s a breakdown of relevant data:
- **Production and Sales**: The Shanghai Gigafactory produces over half of Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries. In 2024, Tesla’s China sales were reported to account for approximately 22% of its total revenue. Given Tesla’s global revenue of $96.773 billion in 2024 (per Tesla’s annual report), this suggests roughly **$21.3 billion** from China sales alone.[](https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-business-ties-china-2006722)[](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/world/asia/musk-china-tesla-explained.html)
- **Market Importance**: China is Tesla’s second-largest market after the U.S., contributing significantly to both production (about 50% of global output) and profits. Some sources estimate that 30% of Tesla’s profits may come from China, though exact profit figures are not publicly broken down.
- **Additional Revenue Streams**: Tesla also earns revenue from selling regulatory credits and battery storage solutions in China. For instance, Tesla signed a $556 million deal to develop a grid-scale battery power plant in China, which adds to its revenue stream.
- **Supply Chain**: Nearly 40% of Tesla’s battery supply chain relies on Chinese companies, but this represents costs rather than revenue. However, partnerships with Chinese firms (e.g., CATL for batteries) indirectly support Tesla’s profitability in China by reducing production costs.[](https://theconversation.com/how-elon-musks-deep-ties-to-and-admiration-for-china-could-complicate-trumps-beijing-policy-249988)
**Estimated Tesla Revenue from China (2024)**: Approximately **$21.3 billion** from vehicle sales, plus additional revenue from battery projects and other services, potentially totaling **$22–23 billion**.
### SpaceX
SpaceX has no direct sales in China due to its focus on U.S. government contracts and commercial launches, but there are indirect financial ties:
- **Chinese Investments**: Chinese investors have funneled tens of millions into SpaceX through special-purpose vehicles (SPVs) based in offshore hubs like the Cayman Islands. These investments are not revenue but indicate financial interest from Chinese sources. A 2021 attempt by a Chinese firm to invest $50 million in SpaceX was blocked due to national security concerns.[](https://sherwood.news/tech/ft-chinese-money-is-pouring-into-musks-private-companies/)[](https://www.propublica.org/article/elon-musk-spacex-allows-china-investment-cayman-islands-secrecy)[](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-investors-quietly-pour-millions-into-elon-musk-s-companies-1034456204)
- **Revenue Context**: SpaceX’s 2024 revenue is estimated at over $10 billion, primarily from NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense ($18.5 billion in contracts), and commercial satellite launches. There’s no evidence of direct revenue from Chinese clients, as China’s space program operates independently.[](https://sherwood.news/tech/ft-chinese-money-is-pouring-into-musks-private-companies/)[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX)
**Estimated SpaceX Revenue from Chinese Sources**: Likely **$0** in direct revenue, though Chinese investments (not revenue) exist in undisclosed amounts.
### X Corp (Formerly Twitter)
X Corp, acquired by Musk in 2022, has minimal direct revenue from China:
- **Market Presence**: China bans X/Twitter, so direct user or advertising revenue from Chinese consumers is negligible. Any revenue would come from Chinese companies advertising to global audiences, but no specific figures are available.
- **Concerns**: Musk’s ties to China via Tesla have raised questions about potential Chinese influence on X’s content moderation, but there’s no evidence of significant revenue from Chinese sources.[](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/elon-musks-business-ties-china-draw-scrutiny-twitter-purchase-rcna26057)
**Estimated X Corp Revenue from Chinese Sources**: Likely **negligible** (less than $1 million, if any).
### Neuralink, The Boring Company, and xAI
These companies have limited or no direct operations in China:
- **Neuralink**: Focused on neurotechnology, Neuralink has received Chinese investments through SPVs, but no revenue from Chinese sources is reported. Its work is primarily U.S.-based and experimental.[](https://sherwood.news/tech/ft-chinese-money-is-pouring-into-musks-private-companies/)[](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-investors-quietly-pour-millions-into-elon-musk-s-companies-1034456204)
- **The Boring Company**: Focused on tunneling projects in the U.S., there’s no evidence of Chinese contracts or revenue.[](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2025/elon-musk-business-government-contracts-funding/)
- **xAI**: A newer AI venture, xAI has also received Chinese investments via SPVs, but it’s not generating significant revenue yet, and none is tied to China.[](https://sherwood.news/tech/ft-chinese-money-is-pouring-into-musks-private-companies/)[](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-investors-quietly-pour-millions-into-elon-musk-s-companies-1034456204)
**Estimated Revenue from Chinese Sources for Neuralink, The Boring Company, and xAI**: **$0** or negligible.
### Total Estimated Revenue from Chinese or Chinese-Related Sources
- **Tesla**: ~$22–23 billion (primarily from vehicle sales and battery projects).
- **SpaceX, X Corp, Neuralink, The Boring Company, xAI**: ~$0 or negligible.
**Total Annual Revenue from Chinese Sources (2024 Estimate)**: Approximately **$22–23 billion**, almost entirely from Tesla’s operations in China.
### Notes and Caveats
- **Data Limitations**: Exact figures are not publicly disclosed, and estimates rely on reported percentages of Tesla’s global revenue. Other Musk companies have opaque financials, especially regarding foreign investments.
- **Chinese Investments vs. Revenue**: While Chinese investors have stakes in SpaceX, Neuralink, and xAI, these are equity investments, not revenue.[](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-investors-quietly-pour-millions-into-elon-musk-s-companies-1034456204)
- **Supply Chain**: China’s role in Tesla’s supply chain (e.g., batteries, solar panels) reduces costs but isn’t direct revenue.[](https://www.quora.com/What-business-interests-does-Elon-Musk-currently-have-in-China)[](https://theconversation.com/how-elon-musks-deep-ties-to-and-admiration-for-china-could-complicate-trumps-beijing-policy-249988)
- **Political Context**: Musk’s ties to China have drawn scrutiny, with some claiming his business interests influence U.S. policy, but this doesn’t directly affect revenue figures.[](https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-ties-china-tesla-2048852)[](https://prospect.org/politics/2024-12-20-government-shutting-down-elon-musk-factories-china/)
If you need a deeper dive into any specific company or aspect (e.g., Tesla’s China sales breakdown), let me know!
ITM - NYC Mayoral Race Perspective BOTG
ITM John and Adam,
I wanted to share the perspective of someone who was born and raised in New York City, where I lived for 35 years before moving to Texas last year (Hello Adam). Despite the city’s challenges, I have nothing but love for New York. However, recent changes have significantly shaped its political landscape, particularly over the past two decades. One key change is the introduction of ranked-choice voting in the mayoral primaries, implemented in the last election cycle. This system allows New Yorkers to stack rank up to five candidates in order of preference, a process that’s still new and possibly not fully understood by many voters. Some likely continue voting strictly along party lines.
Over the last 20+ years, there’s been a noticeable increase in college-educated, progressive-leaning transplants, often from affluent backgrounds. These individuals tend to settle in areas like Astoria in Queens (where Mamdani is assemblyman), Williamsburg, Greenpoint, or parts of Manhattan with easy commutes for work. Many are supported financially by their parents in addition to their jobs and lean heavily toward socialist ideals, influenced by progressive education and social media. This group has driven significant gentrification across the outer boroughs and even parts of Manhattan. In the recent election, there was a strong push among them to prioritize Zohran Mamdani as their top choice in the ranked-choice system, while avoiding ranking Andrew Cuomo.
This trend is amplified by younger New Yorkers, who, through their education and social media exposure, also lean progressive and appear anti-establishment. Their influence was evident in the widespread encouragement—among friends, family, and online—to exclude Cuomo from their rankings. I noticed this even as someone who rarely uses social media and no longer lives in New York.
Additionally, New York’s large immigrant population, many of whom became citizens, tends to support Democrats, viewing them as the party of immigrants. Growing up in an immigrant community with immigrant parents, I’ve seen this firsthand. This holds true for the large number of African American’s in the city. Combined with the general tendency of New Yorkers to vote along party lines, this dynamic shaped the election outcome. While Cuomo may have received many first-place rankings amongst immigrants and native New Yorkers, Mamdani also garnered their support by being ranked at all. Add this with the efforts by transplants and young people to not rank Cuomo at all and here we are.
Meanwhile, in outer areas like Bayside, Rockaway, and Staten Island, long-time New Yorkers often first-, second-, or third-generation immigrants lean more moderate or conservative. These residents are increasingly leaving the city. As transplants grow in number, the younger Native New Yorkers continue to be indoctrinated, and the general population remains preoccupied with daily struggles, it’s unclear how New York will evolve. Many residents are too busy with their lives and families to fully engage with these shifts or take the time to understand a candidates true politics. The next few years will be interesting to say the least.
Thanks,
Sean
Diddy Verdict - Quick Thoughts BOTG
Adam—Diddy was convicted on two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution. He was acquitted of one RICO count and two sex-trafficking counts.
As I understand it, each “transportation” count has a maximum sentence of 10 years. If these terms were to run consecutively, that would be 20 years. But again, that’s worst-case. Here are some things to watch out for:
· I fully expect to see an attempt to get Diddy out of confinement pending sentencing. His lawyers are probably paid by the hour, and there’s no downside to trying. But while a release is possible, it seems unlikely. Judge Subramanian decided long ago that Diddy should remain confined. The fact that he now has a conviction only increases his incentive to flee. Plus, he seems like a retaliatory cuss. So I doubt he’ll be released pending sentencing.
· I fully expect to see some post-verdict motions, such as a motion for new trial and a motion for judgment of acquittal. These are unlikely to succeed, but again, there’s no downside to trying.
· Judge Subramanian will receive a presentencing report that will analyze all kinds of factors that either enhance or diminish the punishment. This will culminate in a sentencing hearing, during which both sides will offer evidence and testimony, each arguing for greater or lesser punishment. Then Judge Subramanian will announce a sentence. If there are post-verdict motions, it could take months before sentencing happens.
· I have no idea what the actual sentence will be, but I think it’s unlikely that Diddy would get away without more incarceration. I could be way off here, but my admittedly vague understanding of the record in this case suggests that “time served” probably won’t cut it.
· This will be appealed to the Second Circuit.
· Don’t forget that Tony Buzbee is still out there. He will scour the trial record for evidence to use in his civil lawsuits. Meanwhile, once sentencing is complete, I expect Diddy’s people to really start fighting back against Buzbee without reservation. I also expect Buzbee to try to depose Diddy because Diddy can no longer invoke the Fifth Amendment. (And if he does, heaven help him because, unlike criminal trials where you can’t comment about someone pleading the Fifth, you _are_ allowed to do that in civil lawsuits. So when someone starts pleading the Fifth in a civil-suit deposition, you start asking them all kinds of incriminating questions, including where they buried Jimmy Hoffa. Hilarity ensues. 😂) Anyway, I expect this whole Buzbee thing to heat up again. Maybe we’ll get a second chance to see those videos? I can hear JCD scoffing, but hey, a boy can dream.
