On August 7, Gallup released a surprising poll. Nearly 70 percent of Ukrainians said they want the war to end soon—even if that means sitting down at the negotiating table. Only 1 in 4 believe the fighting should continue until Ukraine achieves a complete military victory. That’s a huge shift compared to two years ago. And yet, despite this, most people still don’t believe peace will come anytime soon.
Why? The answer isn’t all that complicated. President Zelensky has made clear he doesn’t want to accept major compromises. Western allies—especially Britain—back him in this stance. But to really understand why the war keeps dragging on, you have to zoom out, and look into the past.
The Old Western Playbook
For a long time, Britain has sought to weaken Russia. After the Maidan protests of 2014, that old strategy was dusted off once again. A British think tank, tied to NATO and MI6, even argued back then that an old-fashioned confrontation with Russia would serve the West’s interests.
But this way of thinking goes back much further. As early as 1957, the CIA produced a 200-page report proposing that American Special Forces should secretly infiltrate Ukraine, spark uprisings, and destabilize the Soviet Union from within.
How the CIA Saw Ukraine
At the time, the CIA didn’t believe Ukrainians were particularly hostile toward Russia. After all, Ukraine and Russia had been tied together since the 17th century. But the Agency did spot a few fault lines where unrest could be encouraged:
• Western Ukraine (Lviv and Volyn): Nationalists here had a long tradition of resisting Moscow, sometimes with British support. The CIA viewed this as the most fertile ground for an uprising.
• Kyiv: The capital leaned more toward Ukrainian nationalism. The Soviets even moved the capital temporarily to Kharkiv because they didn’t trust Kyiv. In 2014, the city again became the heart of protest.
• Donbass and Crimea: These regions were considered strongly loyal to Russia. A “Russian island in the Ukrainian sea,” as the report put it.
• Odessa: Too mixed and too close to Russia to serve as a reliable base for anti-Russian movements.
In short, the CIA had already mapped out the fracture lines that would become glaringly obvious after 2014.
From Maidan to Now
Fast forward to the Maidan protests of 2014, and the old CIA forecasts suddenly seemed prophetic:
• Western Ukraine and Kyiv led the push for change.
• Donbass and Crimea resisted, seeking closer ties with Moscow.
• Odessa witnessed one of the worst tragedies, when dozens of anti-Maidan activists died in a fire.
Since then, Ukraine has become the battleground for a conflict that has been simmering for decades. Today, even as most Ukrainians say they just want peace, Western powers keep applying pressure on Russia—exactly as the old playbooks had envisioned.
History Repeats Itself
It really does feel like history repeating itself. The CIA’s 1957 blueprint and Britain’s plans from 2014 are still shaping events today. Most Ukrainians want the fighting to stop. But their future remains caught in power games that began long before they were even born.
I think back to my own grandparents, who used to say that decisions about war were always made far away, by people they would never meet.
Some things never change.