Trump Prophecy: the Donald Trump "777" Presidential Inauguration Prophecy 2017 - YouTube
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 17:50
Donald Trump Recruits Corporate Lobbyists to Select His Future Administration
Tue, 08 Nov 2016 22:19
As Donald Trump finishes his campaign with a promise to break the control of Washington by political insiders, his transition team is preparing to hand his administration over to a cozy clique of corporate lobbyists and Republican power brokers.
''Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you the American people,'' Trump says in his closing campaign advertisement, followed by flashing images of K Street, Wall Street, and Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein.
But the Trump transition team is a who's who of influence peddlers, including: energy adviser Michael Catanzaro, a lobbyist for Koch Industries and the Walt Disney Company; adviser Eric Ueland, a Senate Republican staffer who previously lobbied for Goldman Sachs; and Transition General Counsel William Palatucci, an attorney in New Jersey whose lobbying firm represents Aetna and Verizon. Rick Holt, Christine Ciccone, Rich Bagger, and Mike Ferguson are among the other corporate lobbyists helping to manage the transition effort.
Presidential transition teams develop policy plans and come up with a list of more than 4,000 people an incoming president appoints, including White House jobs, cabinet secretaries, and lower level positions that oversee the military, agriculture, trade, and beyond.
Trump for America Inc., a nonprofit group chaired by Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., to oversee the Trump transition, has quietly moved ahead, meeting with interest groups and reaching out to lobbyists to plan a future Trump administration.
The group has held regular meetings at the Washington, D.C., offices of Baker Hostetler, a law and lobbying firm.
On Thursday, the group hosted a breakfast at Baker Hostetler attended by Microsoft's Ed Ingle and Steve Hart, two lobbyists who, according to filings, have worked to promote the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Other transition meetings have included briefings with the Financial Services Roundtable and the Investment Company Institute, two lobby groups that represent Wall Street interests, as well as with the BGR Group, a lobby firm that represents Saudi Arabia and the South Korean government.
Trump, of course, isn't alone is relying on entrenched political insiders to shape his future administration. The Hillary Clinton transition team is led by Ken Salazar and Tom Donilon, two former Obama administration officials who now serve on the lobbying teams of major law firms. Though the Clinton campaign gained headlines for banning registered lobbyists from managing her transition, the distinction between registered and unregistered lobbying is largely a question of semantics.
Trump's decision to embrace lobbyists while denouncing them on the campaign trail should come as no surprise to any seasoned observer.
The reality television mogul seized on distaste for big money politics as a potent campaign issue, denouncing the role of Super PACs during the Republican primaries. ''I have disavowed all Super PACs,'' Trump said, adding that he would oppose any support from lobbyists and other special interest groups. After shoring up the nomination, the candidate quickly reversed himself, not only raising cash from lobbyists but switching gears to aggressively embrace the the same Super PAC strategies used by more traditional candidates. Several Trump staffers moved from his campaign to Super PACs supporting the Trump-Pence ticket.
Top photo: Donald Trump and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is leading the Trump-Pence transition effort.
Cuba announces nationwide military drills after Trump victory '-- RT America
Thu, 10 Nov 2016 00:46
The Cuban government announced five days of pre-existing military exercises across the country to prepare the troops to deal with ''a range of enemy actions.'' The news comes right after Donald Trump secured a win in US presidential elections.
The drills were announced in red letters on the front page of the country's main newspaper, the Communist Party's Granma, Reuters reported.
The drills will see the army, interior ministry and other forces engage in various types of tactical exercises are to take place from November16 to 20.
The maneuvers would include ''movements of troops and war materiel, overflights and explosions in the cases where they're required,'' the newspaper warned Cuban citizens, as cited by AP.
The military drills, known as the Bastion Strategic Exercise, have been held in Cuba since the 1980s. They have taken place seven times in total, usually in times of tense relations with the US.
This kind of exercises were first launched in 1980 after Ronald Reagan's victory in the US presidential elections.
The government hasn't directly linked its decision to Donald Trump's victory although the president-elect has promised to walk away from Obama's policy of restoring relations with the island more than once.
Trump said he would stick to Obama's line only if President Raul Castro allows for more political freedom in the country.
At the end of October, the US abstained from voting at the UN on a resolution calling for an end to the US economic embargo against Cuba, which was the first case in 24 years. The resolution was adopted by 193 votes. Israel was the only country that abstained, apart from the US. The document is non-binding, but it carries political weight.
The thaw in US-Cuba relations triggered an spike in tourism. Vast number of executives from the US and other countries visited the island interested in doing business there since then.
The Obama administration began the process of normalization of relations with the Communist-run country at the end of 2014, relaxing trade and travel restrictions. In July 2015, diplomatic relations were restored, and embassies in the two countries reopened. In March President Obama made the first visit to Havana by a US president in 88 years.
Yale Professor Cancels Exam for Snowflake Students Distraught at Election Result | Heat Street
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 21:15
Liberal students across the nation watched in shock as Donald Trump clinched victory from Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States.
But some wiped their tears, and pulled themselves together enough to ask their professors to cancel their exams because they were so upset by the results.
And one Yale economics professor heard the cry, and decided to protect his snowflake charges by making the test optional.
He wrote to them saying: ''I am getting many heartfelt notes from students who are in shock over the election returns'' and ''fear, rightly or wrongly for their families'' and are ''requesting that the exam be postponed.''
It isn't clear who the professor was, but Yale publishes a list of its economics faculty members here.
John Victor, editor of the Yale News, published the extraordinary message, and noted that many more snowflake students were demanding similar treatment:
The professor, in charge of the Econ 115 ''introductory microeconomics'' unit, acknowledges that many students sacrificed their time preparing for it, and were welcome to take it anyway.
But he said that said anybody who could not face going it that day could skip it with no consequences.
Apparently not everybody was so lucky, though:
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Van Jones says Trump win a 'whitelash against a changing country' - Business Insider
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 16:38
Screenshot via CNN
As Donald Trump raked in enough electoral votes to win the White House on Tuesday night, and millions of his supporters celebrated nationwide, a large contingent of Americans was left stunned at the result.
The GOP nominee's raucous campaign has been considered by many as a vehicle to subjugate people of color, women, and immigrants as outsiders, and the notion that Trump's movement could ultimately be validated with a presidential victory prompted a sobering testimony from CNN commentator and former Obama Administration official, Van Jones.
"There's another side to this. People have talked about a miracle. I'm hearing about a nightmare," he said.
Jones expressed concern about the example Trump's campaign, and the voters who cosigned it, would set for America:
"It's hard to be a parent tonight for a lot of us," Jones said shortly after midnight Wednesday. "You tell your kids, don't be a bully. You tell your kids don't be a bigot. You tell your kids do your homework and be prepared. And then you have this outcome, and you have people putting children to bed tonight, and they're afraid of breakfast."
Speaking about Muslim friends and immigrant families who are worried over whether they should leave the country, Jones said they are "terrified" about what's next.
He acknowledged that the election was about more than just race '-- even though Trump spent years casting doubt on whether President Barack Obama is an American citizen, a crusade viewed as an attack on the first African-American president's legitimacy.
But, according to Jones, the magnitude of Trump's victory is indicative of a hard truth:
"This was a whitelash against a changing country. It was a whitelash against a black president in part. And that's the part where the pain comes," Jones said.
Jones added that an important next step for President-elect Trump will be to "reassure people that he's going to be the president of all of those people he offended, and brushed aside. ... I know it's not just about race, there's more going on than that '-- but race is here, too, and we've got to talk about it."
Duterte after Trump win: I don't want to pick a fight
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 15:04
Rodrigo Duterte, who himself was nicknamed the 'Trump of the East' during the Philippine presidential campaign, acknowledges similarities between him and the incoming US president
Pia RanadaPublished 9:33 PM, November 09, 2016
Updated 9:52 PM, November 09, 2016
MANILA, Philippines '' The usually combative Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he doesn't want to pick a fight with the next United States President, Donald Trump.
"Ayaw ko nga, sabi ko, makipag-away kasi nandiyan na si Trump," said Duterte on Wednesday night, November 9, at a gathering of Filipinos in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. (I said I don't want to fight because Trump is there.)
"I would like to congratulate President Trump. Mabuhay ka (May you live)!" he added, to cheers from his audience.
Duterte, who himself was nicknamed the "Trump of the East" during the Philippine presidential campaign last May, acknowledged similarities between him and the incoming US president.
"Pareho tayo nagmumura. Kaonting rason lang, mura kaagad. Medyo pareho kami," said Duterte. (We both curse. For any small reason, we curse. We are kind of similar.)
It seems the Philippine President has been advised to "shut up" about Trump.
"Ayaw ko po ng kalaban, but I cannot also '' sabi kasi nila, tapos na ang election, nanalo na si Trump, why don't we just shut up," said Duterte.(I don't want an enemy, but I cannot also '' because, they said, the election is over and Trump has won, why don't we just shut up?)
The Palace earlier released a statement in which Duterte congratulated Trump and expressed his hopes for "enhanced Philippines-US relations anchored on mutual respect, mutual benefit, and shared commitment to democratic ideals and the rule of law."
Trump's victory casts even more uncertainty over US-Philippines relations, which have become tense because of Duterte's open hostility to the US, and specifically to incumbent US President Barack Obama.
The firebrand Philippine President has launched curse-laden tirades against Obama and threatened to scrap key military deals between the US and the Philippines.
He bristled at Obama's criticism of his anti-illegal drugs campaign. He called the US hypocritical for demanding respect for human rights when it led a violent pacification campaign against Moros in Mindanao in the 1900s. '' Rappler.com
Photo of Donald Trump by Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse
Want to migrate to Australia? 2016-17 Skilled Occupations List (SOL) announced | SBS Your Language
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 13:40
Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) have released the new Skilled Occupations List (SOL) for 2016-17.
17 May 2016 - 1:53 PM UPDATED 18 May 2016 - 4:06 PM
Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) have released the new Skilled Occupations List (SOL) for 2016-17.
This list will come into effect from 1st July, 2016.
The Skilled Occupations List is used for 189 (Skilled Independent Visa), 489 (Skilled Regional Provisional Visa) and 485 (Graduate Temporary Visa) visa applications.
The DIBP have also released the Consolidated Sponsored Occupations List (CSOL) which is used for 190 (Skilled Nominated Visa), 457 (Temporary Work Skilled Visa) and 186 (Employer Nominated Scheme) visa applications.
Here's the SOL 2016-17
For CSOL 2016-17, click here.
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Bryan Cranston Would Leave the U.S. If Donald Trump Becomes President - Us Weekly
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 08:52
Bryan Cranston on September 13, 2016 in Toronto, Canada. Credit: George Pimentel/WireImageBryan Cranston, like several other stars, might be packing his bags if Donald Trump becomes the next president. The Breaking Bad actor, 60, revealed his possible relocation plans during a new interview with The Hollywood Reporter.
"Absolutely. I would definitely move [to Canada]. It's not real to me that that would happen. I hope to God it won't," Cranston said. "It wouldn't be a vacation. I'd be an expatriate."
PHOTOS: Celebrities' Political AffiliationsThe Power Rangers star added that the GOP presidential candidate's behavior during the campaign will be remembered long after the election. "There will be books written, movies made," he said. "I'm telling you, there will be theatrical productions about Donald Trump because of the anomaly that he presented."
Last November, Cranston revealed during an interview with Politico that he's in Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's corner. In July, he further opened up about the former secretary of state, 69, at an event in Philadelphia.
PHOTOS: Hillary Clinton's A-List Supporters"You know, I'm a Democrat, and I'm supporting Hillary and if that means there are people who will not go see my movies because of it, well, so be it '-- that's OK," Cranston, who has portrayed Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson on film, said via The Daily Mail. "I am willing to take those risks, I don't want to sit on the sidelines."
Cranston isn't alone with his vote '-- or his his plan to leave the country. Here, Us Weekly has rounded up 10 more celebs who have considered leaving the States if the mogul, 70, becomes commander in chief.
1. Lena Dunham: "I know a lot of people have been threatening to do this, but I really will. '... I know a lovely place in Vancouver and I can get my work done from there." (Matrix Awards in May 2016, via THR)
2. Miley Cyrus: "Honestly f--k this s--t I am moving if this is my president! I don't say things I don't mean!" (March 2016, Instagram)
Whoopi Goldberg on October 5, 2016 in New York City.Neilson Barnard/Getty Image3.Whoopi Goldberg: "When they just use a blanket statement to talk about black people or when they use a blanket statement to talk about white people or women or any other group '-- I don't think that's America. I don't want it to be America. Maybe it's time for me to move." (She later said that she's staying put.) (January 2016,The View)
4. George Lopez: "If he wins, he won't have to worry about immigration, we'll all go back!" (July 2015, via The Chicago Tribune)
5. Cher: "IF HE WERE TO BE ELECTED,IM MOVING TO JUPITER." (June 2015, Twitter)
PHOTOS: Donald Trump's Most Offensive and Outrageous Quotes RankedKeegan-Michael Key on October 9, 2016 in New York City.Michael Stewart/WireImage6.Keegan-Michael Key: "Jeez, I might leave. It's like, 10 minutes from Detroit. That's where I'm from; my mom lives there. It'd make her happy too." (January 2016,TMZ)
7. Raven-Symon(C): "My confession for this election is, if any Republican gets nominated, I'm gonna move to Canada with my entire family. Is that bad? I already have my ticket. I literally bought my ticket, I swear." (February 2016, The View)
8. Samuel L. Jackson: "If that motherf--ker becomes president I'll move my black ass to South Africa." (May 2016, Jimmy Kimmel Live!)
Chelsea Handler on October 24, 2016 in Los Angeles, California.Stefanie Keenan/Getty Images9.Chelsea Handler: "I have a house in Spain that is going to be ready right after the election." (January 2016,Vanity Fair)
10. Sienna Miller: "I don't know if I can stay if it goes the wrong way, so I'm really hoping that Hillary comes through." (October 2016, Fox News)
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An American Tragedy - The New Yorker
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 08:35
The electorate has, in its plurality, decided to live in Trump's world.Credit ILLUSTRATION BY OLIVER MUNDAYThe election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is nothing less than a tragedy for the American republic, a tragedy for the Constitution, and a triumph for the forces, at home and abroad, of nativism, authoritarianism, misogyny, and racism. Trump's shocking victory, his ascension to the Presidency, is a sickening event in the history of the United States and liberal democracy. On January 20, 2017, we will bid farewell to the first African-American President'--a man of integrity, dignity, and generous spirit'--and witness the inauguration of a con who did little to spurn endorsement by forces of xenophobia and white supremacy. It is impossible to react to this moment with anything less than revulsion and profound anxiety.
There are, inevitably, miseries to come: an increasingly reactionary Supreme Court; an emboldened right-wing Congress; a President whose disdain for women and minorities, civil liberties and scientific fact, to say nothing of simple decency, has been repeatedly demonstrated. Trump is vulgarity unbounded, a knowledge-free national leader who will not only set markets tumbling but will strike fear into the hearts of the vulnerable, the weak, and, above all, the many varieties of Other whom he has so deeply insulted. The African-American Other. The Hispanic Other. The female Other. The Jewish and Muslim Other. The most hopeful way to look at this grievous event'--and it's a stretch'--is that this election and the years to follow will be a test of the strength, or the fragility, of American institutions. It will be a test of our seriousness and resolve.
Early on Election Day, the polls held out cause for concern, but they provided sufficiently promising news for Democrats in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and even Florida that there was every reason to think about celebrating the fulfillment of Seneca Falls, the election of the first woman to the White House. Potential victories in states like Georgia disappeared, little more than a week ago, with the F.B.I. director's heedless and damaging letter to Congress about reopening his investigation and the reappearance of damaging buzzwords like ''e-mails,'' ''Anthony Weiner,'' and ''fifteen-year-old girl.'' But the odds were still with Hillary Clinton.
All along, Trump seemed like a twisted caricature of every rotten reflex of the radical right. That he has prevailed, that he has won this election, is a crushing blow to the spirit; it is an event that will likely cast the country into a period of economic, political, and social uncertainty that we cannot yet imagine. That the electorate has, in its plurality, decided to live in Trump's world of vanity, hate, arrogance, untruth, and recklessness, his disdain for democratic norms, is a fact that will lead, inevitably, to all manner of national decline and suffering.
In the coming days, commentators will attempt to normalize this event. They will try to soothe their readers and viewers with thoughts about the ''innate wisdom'' and ''essential decency'' of the American people. They will downplay the virulence of the nationalism displayed, the cruel decision to elevate a man who rides in a gold-plated airliner but who has staked his claim with the populist rhetoric of blood and soil. George Orwell, the most fearless of commentators, was right to point out that public opinion is no more innately wise than humans are innately kind. People can behave foolishly, recklessly, self-destructively in the aggregate just as they can individually. Sometimes all they require is a leader of cunning, a demagogue who reads the waves of resentment and rides them to a popular victory. ''The point is that the relative freedom which we enjoy depends of public opinion,'' Orwell wrote in his essay ''Freedom of the Park.'' ''The law is no protection. Governments make laws, but whether they are carried out, and how the police behave, depends on the general temper in the country. If large numbers of people are interested in freedom of speech, there will be freedom of speech, even if the law forbids it; if public opinion is sluggish, inconvenient minorities will be persecuted, even if laws exist to protect them.''
Trump ran his campaign sensing the feeling of dispossession and anxiety among millions of voters'--white voters, in the main. And many of those voters'--not all, but many'--followed Trump because they saw that this slick performer, once a relative cipher when it came to politics, a marginal self-promoting buffoon in the jokescape of eighties and nineties New York, was more than willing to assume their resentments, their fury, their sense of a new world that conspired against their interests. That he was a billionaire of low repute did not dissuade them any more than pro-Brexit voters in Britain were dissuaded by the cynicism of Boris Johnson and so many others. The Democratic electorate might have taken comfort in the fact that the nation had recovered substantially, if unevenly, from the Great Recession in many ways'--unemployment is down to 4.9 per cent'--but it led them, it led us, to grossly underestimate reality. The Democratic electorate also believed that, with the election of an African-American President and the rise of marriage equality and other such markers, the culture wars were coming to a close. Trump began his campaign declaring Mexican immigrants to be ''rapists''; he closed it with an anti-Semitic ad evoking ''The Protocols of the Elders of Zion''; his own behavior made a mockery of the dignity of women and women's bodies. And, when criticized for any of it, he batted it all away as ''political correctness.'' Surely such a cruel and retrograde figure could succeed among some voters, but how could he win? Surely, Breitbart News, a site of vile conspiracies, could not become for millions a source of news and mainstream opinion. And yet Trump, who may have set out on his campaign merely as a branding exercise, sooner or later recognized that he could embody and manipulate these dark forces. The fact that ''traditional'' Republicans, from George H. W. Bush to Mitt Romney, announced their distaste for Trump only seemed to deepen his emotional support.
The commentators, in their attempt to normalize this tragedy, will also find ways to discount the bumbling and destructive behavior of the F.B.I., the malign interference of Russian intelligence, the free pass'--the hours of uninterrupted, unmediated coverage of his rallies'--provided to Trump by cable television, particularly in the early months of his campaign. We will be asked to count on the stability of American institutions, the tendency of even the most radical politicians to rein themselves in when admitted to office. Liberals will be admonished as smug, disconnected from suffering, as if so many Democratic voters were unacquainted with poverty, struggle, and misfortune. There is no reason to believe this palaver. There is no reason to believe that Trump and his band of associates'--Chris Christie, Rudolph Giuliani, Mike Pence, and, yes, Paul Ryan'--are in any mood to govern as Republicans within the traditional boundaries of decency. Trump was not elected on a platform of decency, fairness, moderation, compromise, and the rule of law; he was elected, in the main, on a platform of resentment. Fascism is not our future'--it cannot be; we cannot allow it to be so'--but this is surely the way fascism can begin.
Hillary Clinton was a flawed candidate but a resilient, intelligent, and competent leader, who never overcame her image among millions of voters as untrustworthy and entitled. Some of this was the result of her ingrown instinct for suspicion, developed over the years after one bogus ''scandal'' after another. And yet, somehow, no matter how long and committed her earnest public service, she was less trusted than Trump, a flim-flam man who cheated his customers, investors, and contractors; a hollow man whose countless statements and behavior reflect a human being of dismal qualities'--greedy, mendacious, and bigoted. His level of egotism is rarely exhibited outside of a clinical environment.
For eight years, the country has lived with Barack Obama as its President. Too often, we tried to diminish the racism and resentment that bubbled under the cyber-surface. But the information loop had been shattered. On Facebook, articles in the traditional, fact-based press look the same as articles from the conspiratorial alt-right media. Spokesmen for the unspeakable now have access to huge audiences. This was the cauldron, with so much misogynistic language, that helped to demean and destroy Clinton. The alt-right press was the purveyor of constant lies, propaganda, and conspiracy theories that Trump used as the oxygen of his campaign. Steve Bannon, a pivotal figure at Breitbart, was his propagandist and campaign manager.
It is all a dismal picture. Late last night, as the results were coming in from the last states, a friend called me full of sadness, full of anxiety about conflict, about war. Why not leave the country? But despair is no answer. To combat authoritarianism, to call out lies, to struggle honorably and fiercely in the name of American ideals'--that is what is left to do. That is all there is to do.
More on Donald Trump's victory: Amy Davison on Trump's stunning win, Evan Osnos on Trump's supporters, and Benjamin Wallace-Wells on who is to blame.
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Hillary Clinton will gain votes after Election Night. Here's why. - The Washington Post
Wed, 09 Nov 2016 06:58
By Charles Stewart III and Edward B. FoleyNovember 8 at 7:00 AM
Most Americans assume that by the wee hours of tomorrow, the national media will declare (unofficially, but still decisively) either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump our next president.
Of course, the 2000 election showed that the result might not be settled so quickly. Considering how tight the polls have been, one or two battleground states may be too close to call Wednesday morning.
[Cyberattacks could disrupt the U.S. election '-- but wouldn't change the results]
That would be good news for Hillary Clinton's chances. She'll probably take more of the mail-in and provisional ballots that can't be counted until the days and weeks after the election. Whatever her vote share tonight, it will probably increase in the weeks to come. Let us explain.
Good news and bad news about the chance the election will be decided tonight
For election administrators, 2000 was a wake-up call. Prompted by the controversial Bush v. Gore decision, states created uniform counting standards, which had been contested during the Florida recount. Reforms include safeguards that protect voters whose names were improperly removed (or never added) to registration lists, and procedures to ensure overseas citizens' and service members' votes will be handled equitably.
[The forecasters who predicted Brexit think Trump is likely to lose]
But some of those election administration changes make it much more likely that millions of votes won't be counted until the days and weeks following Election Day.
Why? For two main reasons. First, more votes are now cast by mail. In 2000, approximately 10 percent of ballots were sent by mail. That had nearly doubled, growing to 19 percent, by 2012. In 2016, we expect that to be well over 20 percent. Some of these are tallied on election night, but not all. Many states allow absentee ballots to be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day.
Voting began at 6 a.m. in several East Coast states, and now it's time to play the waiting game. When will we know whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will be the next president? The Fix's Chris Cillizza explains. (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)
Second, the Help America Vote Act passed in 2002 mandated provisional voting, which allows voters whose registration is questioned to still cast a ballot. That ballot is not counted immediately. It's put in an envelope, much like an absentee ballot, and counted only if that voter's registration is verified later. Resolving provisional ballots can take days or, as happened in this year's California primary, weeks.
[Everyone is sure that their side is going to win '-- even when they're about to be lose big. Here's what we know.]
According to statistics from the federal Election Assistance Commission, in 2012, voters cast at least 2.7 million provisional ballots. The two states with the most provisional ballots, California and New York, aren't battleground states. But the third and fourth-ranked states '-- Ohio and Arizona '-- are.
These ''overtime'' ballots tilt toward the Democrats
So more ballots will still need to be counted after Election Day. Our most recent research shows that these ''overtime'' ballots tilt in favor of Democratic candidates for president.
Consider that in the election returns reported by the New York Times on Nov. 8, 2012, (which we use for the initial election night counts), nearly 118 million ballots had been counted. In those, Obama led by nearly 2.8 million votes.
But by the time all the states had finished their official canvasses several weeks later, the total ballot count included more than 126 million votes '-- an increase in 8 million votes since election night. And Obama's lead had grown to well over 4.8 million votes.
In other words, 51.1 percent of the two-party votes counted on election night 2012 were for Obama. Of ballots counted after election night, 62.7 percent were for Obama. By the time all the votes had been counted, Obama's share of the vote had grown to 51.9 percent.
We've examined such late-counted ballots going back to 1948. For most of the postwar era, the ''overtime vote'' changed little in either direction. One exception came during the 1960 election, when Richard Nixon won a 0.20 percentage point shift in his favor during post-Election-Day counting. The other exceptions reveal a notable trend: During 2004, 2008 and 2012, the Democratic candidates enjoyed gains of 0.12, 0.35, and 0.39 percentage points, respectively.
In other words, since 2000, votes counted after election night have increasingly favored the Democratic candidate. We call this the ''blue shift.''
Here's why the late count now favors the Democratic candidate. People who cast provisional ballots are usually those whose registration appears irregular on Election Day. Most registration questions come because voters have moved without updating their registrations. In recent years Democrats have won more of the votes from social groups that tend to move often: racial minorities and young adults.
Here's what to expect from election night 2016
Tonight's totals will almost certainly underestimate Clinton's vote share, both nationwide and in most states.
If Clinton is ahead by early Wednesday morning, expect her margin of victory to widen as more votes are counted in the weeks to come.
If Clinton is behind early Wednesday morning, she might still catch up '-- especially if she is behind in battleground states likely to have large numbers of provisional ballots.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton voted in Chappaqua, N.Y., Nov. 8, accompanied by her husband. (The Washington Post)
Which battleground states might hinge on late-counted ballots?
To help estimate which states these might be, we have compared the closeness of the current presidential race with the percentage of 2012 ballots that were provisional. Any state where the 2012 provisional ballot rate is close to the current polling margin may turn on late-counted ballots '-- that is, if Clinton is just barely behind late tonight.
Six states meet those criteria: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.
Watch these states as returns come in tonight. Make sure that the media does not call them prematurely without adequately considering the possibility that provisional ballots might affect the outcome. Remember that in 2000, most networks ''called'' Florida for Gore, which they then had to retract.
Of course, even if the election is close in one of these states, Clinton is by no means guaranteed victory from the provisional ballots. In 2004, George W. Bush led by 121,012 votes in Ohio, with 158,642 provisional ballots left to count. Only about three-quarters of these proved to be from eligible voters '-- and Bush took in a significant share of those, although a smaller share than did Kerry. Bush's lead was too great to be surmounted by the provisional ballots.
Whatever the vote count tonight, Clinton's share will probably grow in the next few weeks as states release their official tallies. That's not because the system is ''rigged.'' It's just the nation's dedication to making sure that every vote is counted.
Edward B. Foley is the Charles W. Ebersold and Florence Whitcomb Ebersold chair in constitutional law and director of election law at Moritz College of Law at the Ohio State University.
Charles Stewart III is the Kenan Sahin distinguished professor of political science at MIT and co-director of the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project.
After Donald Trump Was Elected President, Aaron Sorkin Wrote This Letter to His Daughter | Vanity Fair
Thu, 10 Nov 2016 06:43
By Vera Anderson/WireImage.
Well the world changed late last night in a way I couldn't protect us from. That's a terrible feeling for a father. I won't sugarcoat it'--this is truly horrible. It's hardly the first time my candidate didn't win (in fact it's the sixth time) but it is the first time that a thoroughly incompetent pig with dangerous ideas, a serious psychiatric disorder, no knowledge of the world and no curiosity to learn has.
And it wasn't just Donald Trump who won last night'--it was his supporters too. The Klan won last night. White nationalists. Sexists, racists and buffoons. Angry young white men who think rap music and Cinco de Mayo are a threat to their way of life (or are the reason for their way of life) have been given cause to celebrate. Men who have no right to call themselves that and who think that women who aspire to more than looking hot are shrill, ugly, and otherwise worthy of our scorn rather than our admiration struck a blow for misogynistic shitheads everywhere. Hate was given hope. Abject dumbness was glamorized as being ''the fresh voice of an outsider'' who's going to ''shake things up.'' (Did anyone bother to ask how? Is he going to re-arrange the chairs in the Roosevelt Room?) For the next four years, the President of the United States, the same office held by Washington and Jefferson, Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt, F.D.R., J.F.K. and Barack Obama, will be held by a man-boy who'll spend his hours exacting Twitter vengeance against all who criticize him (and those numbers will be legion). We've embarrassed ourselves in front of our children and the world.
And the world took no time to react. The Dow futures dropped 7,000 points overnight. Economists are predicting a deep and prolonged recession. Our NATO allies are in a state of legitimate fear. And speaking of fear, Muslim-Americans, Mexican-Americans and African-Americans are shaking in their shoes. And we'd be right to note that many of Donald Trump's fans are not fans of Jews. On the other hand, there is a party going on at ISIS headquarters. What wouldn't we give to trade this small fraction of a man for Richard Nixon right now?
So what do we do?
First of all, we remember that we're not alone. A hundred million people in America and a billion more around the world feel exactly the same way we do.
Second, we get out of bed. The Trumpsters want to see people like us (Jewish, ''coastal elites,'' educated, socially progressive, Hollywood'...) sobbing and wailing and talking about moving to Canada. I won't give them that and neither will you. Here's what we'll do'...
'...we'll fucking fight. (Roxy, there's a time for this kind of language and it's now.) We're not powerless and we're not voiceless. We don't have majorities in the House or Senate but we do have representatives there. It's also good to remember that most members of Trump's own party feel exactly the same way about him that we do. We make sure that the people we sent to Washington'--including Kamala Harris'--take our strength with them and never take a day off.
We get involved. We do what we can to fight injustice anywhere we see it'--whether it's writing a check or rolling up our sleeves. Our family is fairly insulated from the effects of a Trump presidency so we fight for the families that aren't. We fight for a woman to keep her right to choose. We fight for the First Amendment and we fight mostly for equality'--not for a guarantee of equal outcomes but for equal opportunities. We stand up.
America didn't stop being America last night and we didn't stop being Americans and here's the thing about Americans: Our darkest days have always'--always'--been followed by our finest hours.
Roxy, I know my predictions have let you down in the past, but personally, I don't think this guy can make it a year without committing an impeachable crime. If he does manage to be a douche nozzle without breaking the law for four years, we'll make it through those four years. And three years from now we'll fight like hell for our candidate and we'll win and they'll lose and this time they'll lose for good. Honey, it'll be your first vote.
The battle isn't over, it's just begun. Grandpa fought in World War II and when he came home this country handed him an opportunity to make a great life for his family. I will not hand his granddaughter a country shaped by hateful and stupid men. Your tears last night woke me up, and I'll never go to sleep on you again.
FTSE 100 and other global shares soar after Donald Trump's victory | The Independent
Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:11
European stocks rose on Thursday following large gains in Asia and on Wall Street, as exuberance shot through the markets at the prospect of Donald Trump as the next president of the United states.
Anyone who bought German or French shares during Trump's victory speeh on Wednesday morning has seen a 4 per cent boost in their value.
The jump defies the doom-laden predictions of many City analysts who predicted a huge sell-off, if the Republican was victorious.
The consensus view that Trumps unpredictability and protectionist economic policies would spook world markets has prooved incorrect as shares have rebounded strongly.
The FTSE 100 jumped up 1 per cent within minutes, before falling back. It is now around 150 points above its level of the day before Tuesday's election.
Banks gained on the propect of relaxations on Wall Street regulation, with Barclays up 5 per cent and RBS rising 6 per cent. Trump's promises to boost defence spending saw BAE Systems add another 6 per cent to its strong gains from yesterday. Mining shares also rose. Futures contracts for US equities rose sharply on Thursday, suggesting Wall Street will rise sharply when the New York Stock Exchange opens.
Asian equities saw big gains on Thursday, joining a goldrush across world markets as the shock of a Trump' victory was replaced by hopes his plan to kickstart the US economy will succeed.
Trading floors were awash in red on Wednesday as investors reacted to news that the firebrand tycoon had defeated establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton, upending expectations.
However, a reassuring victory speech - followed by calls by Clinton and President Obama to get behind Trump - provided some encouragement to traders, sending risk assets rallying.
Most markets in Asia either wiped out or clawed back most of the previous day's losses, while the dollar pushed higher.
The currency had come under pressure as traders worried that Trump's negative impact on the economy would cause the Federal Reserve to hold off an interest rate rise, but analysts said those worries had abated for now.
Tokyo closed up 6.7 percent, with a plunging yen also providing support. The dollar dallied with 106 yen before easing slightly, well up from Wednesday's low of 101.20 yen.
In the afternoon Hong Kong gained 2.1 percent and Shanghai closed 1.4 percent up. Sydney closed 3.3 percent higher, Seoul jumped two percent and Taipei put on 2.4 percent.
There were also gains of more than one percent in Wellington, Singapore and Manila.
Click here to download your free guide on how to select shares, with Independent Partner, Hargreaves Lansdown
Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to Lead EPA Transition - Scientific American
Thu, 10 Nov 2016 07:09
Donald Trump has selected one of the best-known climate skeptics to lead his U.S. EPA transition team, according to two sources close to the campaign.
Myron Ebell, director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute, is spearheading Trump's transition plans for EPA, the sources said.
The Trump team has also lined up leaders for its Energy Department and Interior Department teams. Republican energy lobbyist Mike McKenna is heading the DOE team; former Interior Department solicitor David Bernhardt is leading the effort for that agency, according to sources close to the campaign.
Ebell is a well-known and polarizing figure in the energy and environment realm. His participation in the EPA transition signals that the Trump team is looking to drastically reshape the climate policies the agency has pursued under the Obama administration. Ebell's role is likely to infuriate environmentalists and Democrats but buoy critics of Obama's climate rules.
Ebell, who was dubbed an ''elegant nerd'' and a ''policy wonk'' by Vanity Fair, is known for his prolific writings that question what he calls climate change ''alarmism.'' He appears frequently in the media and before Congress. He's also chairman of the Cooler Heads Coalition, a group of nonprofits that ''question global warming alarmism and oppose energy-rationing policies.''
Ebell appears to relish criticism from the left.
In a biography submitted when he testified before Congress, he listed among his recognitions that he had been featured in a Greenpeace ''Field Guide to Climate Criminals,'' dubbed a ''misleader'' on global warming by Rolling Stone and was the subject of a motion to censure in the British House of Commons after Ebell criticized the United Kingdom's chief scientific adviser for his views on global warming.
More recently, Ebell has called the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan for greenhouse gases illegal and said that Obama joining the Paris climate treaty ''is clearly an unconstitutional usurpation of the Senate's authority.''
He told Vanity Fair in 2007, ''There has been a little bit of warming ... but it's been very modest and well within the range for natural variability, and whether it's caused by human beings or not, it's nothing to worry about.''
Ebell's views appear to square with Trump's when it comes to EPA's agenda. Trump has called global warming ''bullshit'' and he has said he would ''cancel'' the Paris global warming accord and roll back President Obama's executive actions on climate change (ClimateWire, May 27).
Leading the Trump DOE team: GOP hired gun McKenna.
The president of MWR Strategies is well known in Republican energy circles. He was director of policy and external affairs for the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality under then-Gov. George Allen (R) and was an external relations specialist at the Energy Department during the George H.W. Bush administration.
His lobbying clients in 2016 include Koch Companies Public Sector LLC, Southern Company Services, Dow Chemical Co. and Competitive Power Ventures Inc., according to public disclosures.
And heading Interior's transition effort is Bernhardt, co-chairman of the Natural Resources Department at the law firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.
He served as Interior's solicitor during the George W. Bush administration after holding several other high-ranking jobs at the department.
In addition to the EPA, Interior and DOE team leaders, GOP energy expert Mike Catanzaro is also working on energy policy for the Trump transition team (Greenwire, Sept. 14).
During the Obama transition in 2008, a relatively small team was assembled ahead of the election in order to map out broad policy goals.
Following the election, the operation expanded dramatically and teams were dispatched to work out of agencies to gather information from political staffers and career officials, write flurries of memos and compile thick binders of intelligence to hand over to the incoming leadership (Greenwire, Aug. 19, 2016).
Should Trump win in November, Ebell, McKenna and Bernhardt will likely be leading similar efforts to reform their respective agencies.
Ebell and McKenna directed questions about their roles to the Trump transition team. The Trump campaign and Bernhardt did not respond to requests for comment.
This story also appears in E&E Daily.
Reprinted from ClimateWire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net. Click here for the original story.