As a freight broker (I'm going to start saying freight therapist) one of the biggest Trucker Load Boards has been having "glitches" over the past couple weeks. Website being down for hours, or just sluggish. This has caused delays in us moving freight, and most independent trucking companies use this product DAT.COM. May be nothing, just in my years I've been doing this, this has never really happened.
Chip Supply Chain Issue
Alright, Adam…I’ve been putting this off, but you successfully pushed me over the edge with the Sandy Cortez clip about “inflation" and not having enough “ports and chips.” The lunacy and hyperbole regarding the root causes of the semiconductor supply chain squeeze have gone far enough. Here’s what’s really happening (I apologize in advance for the length):
As everyone knows, when the World Economy switch was flipped off in March 2020, everything ground to a halt. For a brief period of time, nobody was building or buying anything. Airlines were cancelling orders, rental car companies were selling off their fleets, and so on. But shortly thereafter—after everyone took a deep, mask-inhibited breath—factories around the world were classified as “essential” and manufacturing resumed. What happened next is the root cause of the semiconductor squeeze...and a lesson in human psychology.
Let me start with a recent analogy. Back in 2011, a massive monsoon hit Thailand, resulting in widespread flooding that devastated the country. This alone wasn’t enough to crater the global economy, however, zoom in a little further and you’d have noticed the manufacturing operations for Western Digital—one of the world’s largest hard-drive manufacturers—was located there. Now, while this event alone didn’t cause a global hard drive shortage, a certain knee-jerk reaction did:
With a pre-allocated pipeline of millions of dollars in hard drives, Avnet—a massive electronics component distributor—decided to place a one billion dollar (that’s billion with a “b”) “overnight" buy with Western Digital…which of course totally cleared out their inventory. Why? Because they didn’t want anyone to beat them to it. The end result? Hard drive prices went through the roof and if you bought a hard drive any time in the next three years, whoever you bought it from bought it from Avnet.
Now you *could* call this a supply chain issue—after all, a natural disaster *did* ultimately cause disruptions in supply and production—but, in reality, this is simply toilet-paper hoarding at a corporate and global scale. Some VPs in some office somewhere didn’t want to be caught with their pants around their ankles for not having enough safety stock because the financing charges would have taken too big a bite of their margins.
Fast forward to today, and the same exact thing is happening. Ever since the initial supply shock, every massive corporation has been in a race to hoard what they can to get product built…with the added benefit of handcuffing their competitors. We see brokers sucking up any and all available inventory and selling $7 Wi-Fi modules for $70+. I recently had to run to my computer on the 4th of July after getting a stock notification on backordered part. I somehow managed to secure 500 parts we’d been waiting months for and felt like I’d just scored Burning Man tickets. Minutes later they were all gone.
Does anybody really believe that a car built in 2021 has 10x the semiconductors of a 2019 car? Or that everyone in the world suddenly realized they needed an iPad? Or that if we only had enough “ports” that everything would be fine? Yes, this is really advanced technology, and yes, it is incredibly difficult to build, but it is *not* a supply and demand problem in the “traditional" sense everyone (including the media) seems to think it is.
Being the owner of a small business supplying Fortune 500 companies and the US government with critical hardware, I have deep connections and standing in this particular area. If nothing else, I hope this explanation reminds everyone that corporations are made up of individuals, and no matter how experienced or professional one might be, nobody is immune from the natural human instincts of fear and greed.
An Anonymous Producer (and Eagle Scout)
Where Did All the Shipping Containers Go?
The result is what Tim Boyle, chief executive of Columbia Sportswear Co., on a recent earnings conference call said is a “container dislocation” that has contributed to skyrocketing costs and complicated efforts to meet resurgent consumer demand.
BOTG Bottle and can supplies
On the few last shows, you have discussed the shortage of glass bottles and John suggested that
companies should use aluminum cans instead. I wanted to weigh in, as I run a kombucha company in
Denmark and we package all of our products in aluminum cans.
Yes - there is a worldwide shortage of glass bottles. However, the situation with aluminum cans is
even worse. Under normal conditions, most breweries (including large ones like Carlsberg) package
products in roughly 50% cans/bottles and 50% kegs. But due to Covid and the shutdown of
bars/restaurants, breweries have been scrambling to package everything in cans. This has led to not
only increased demand, but breweries also hoarding cans to ensure they don't run out.
Here in Europe, there are two large producers of cans - one in Spain (Ball) and one in Belgium
(Ardagh). The Belgian producer was hacked 6 weeks ago and eventually paid an undisclosed ransom.
This hack not only sent Ardagh offline, but also sent all of their customers to the other producer
looking for supply of cans.
This was a perfect storm of events that has made aluminum can supply virtually impossible. We have
been told that we can MAYBE expect cans in 2022.
One last thing - John is right to be skeptical of kombucha, as most products available are not
really kombucha or taste like complete crap. That said, you should try the good stuff that we make
here in Denmark. If you give me an address, I will send you some to try.
Lumber down 40% here
Alcohol supply chain explained
I spoke to my purchasing director this morning. I am in the operations side of the business, so I decided to ask her about things. She said they have 400-500 containers in ship or at port that are coming in whenever they can get unloaded and put on RR cars. I understand the RR car to be a demand shortage, of course causing ripples down the supply chain.
The reason we are not seeing these shortages in house is because they are forecasting 2 years out and ordering it like they need it now. The slow trickle is actually working. We are over budget on stock, but keeping up with demand. If the supply chain woes were to fix themselves tomorrow we would be flooded with too much product. Purchasing thinks it will be another 12 months before it is back to normal. As things start to loosen up logistically we will order less so we don’t carry too much. Our Purchasing department is walking a very fine line, but they are the best at what they do so I expect it will be fine for us.
I expect to see ABC control states to get worse before they get better. Government can’t legally purchase like we can. They have more controls to their ordering, and are restricted to what they can do by law.
Mandates and Papers
Injected vs. the Infected
Trend: Asking employees to 'attest' their vaccination status
Compulsory workplace vaccination rules cannot apply to vegans
More than half a million vegans will be exempt if companies introduce compulsory vaccination rules in Britain because their beliefs are protected by employment law, legal experts have said.
So-called ethical veganism was ruled to be a protected characteristic at a tribunal last year, meaning employers would risk legal action if they order staff to be vaccinated.
Other people in protected categories are also likely to be protected by human rights laws, including some religious groups as well as people with certain disabilities or medical conditions.
A spokesman for Lewis Silkin, a law firm, said: “Some ethical vegans may disagree with vaccinations on the basis that they will inevitably have been tested on animals. Ethical veganism has previously been found by an [employment tribunal] to amount to a belief, capable of being protected.”
vax at UW-Madison
Herd immunity - WHO
'Herd immunity', also known as 'population immunity', is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. WHO supports achieving 'herd immunity' through vaccination, not by allowing a disease to spread through any segment of the population, as this would result in unnecessary cases and deaths.
Herd immunity against COVID-19 should be achieved by protecting people through vaccination, not by exposing them to the pathogen that causes the disease. Read the Director-General’s 12 October media briefing speech for more detail.
Vaccines train our immune systems to create proteins that fight disease, known as ‘antibodies’, just as would happen when we are exposed to a disease but – crucially – vaccines work without making us sick. Vaccinated people are protected from getting the disease in question and passing on the pathogen, breaking any chains of transmission. Visit our webpage on COVID-19 and vaccines for more detail.
To safely achieve herd immunity against COVID-19, a substantial proportion of a population would need to be vaccinated, lowering the overall amount of virus able to spread in the whole population. One of the aims with working towards herd immunity is to keep vulnerable groups who cannot get vaccinated (e.g. due to health conditions like allergic reactions to the vaccine) safe and protected from the disease. Read our Q&A on vaccines and immunization for more information.
The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated. For polio, the threshold is about 80%. The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known. This is an important area of research and will likely vary according to the community, the vaccine, the populations prioritized for vaccination, and other factors.
The gay clubs in Downtown Sacamento have take it upon themselves to start requiring vaccine cards
Financial Times calls those without vaccines "refuseniks", a major anti-sematic term
Financial Times: Europe adopts carrot-and-stick approach towards vaccine refuseniks
by Guy Chazan in Berlin and Victor Mallet in Paris AUGUST 1 2021
Refusenik... was an unofficial term for individuals—typically, but not exclusively, Soviet Jews—who were denied permission to emigrate, primarily to Israel, by the authorities of the Soviet Union and other countries of the Eastern bloc. The term refusenik is derived from the "refusal" handed down to a prospective emigrant from the Soviet authorities.
Mark of the beast
Current events revolving around the idea of forced vaccines are laying the groundwork for the future “Mark of the Beast.”
And he causes all, the small and the great, and the rich and the poor, and the free men and the slaves, to be given a mark on their right hand or on their forehead, and he provides that no one will be able to buy or to sell, except the one who has the mark, either the name of the beast or the number of his name.
I just wanted to reach out to explain to you just how much the show means to me. I was hit in the
mouth by the only friend I have in my college town of M5M believing Gen-Z’ers back in April, and
haven’t missed an episode since.
I am currently awaiting student loans, and plan to gift myself a producer credit for my birthday
(August 25th).If I had the funds, I would happily donate, rather than sending this note without any
No Agenda has given me a sense of community, providing me with hope for the future. Appreciate you
Covid and the Pope
I wish to be kept anonymous if you plan to use this for the show.
I attend a private Catholic college and was able to get a religious exemption from the vaccine being a Catholic myself. At least for my situation, it was very easy, as I just needed to write a letter stating my beliefs. They don't want to deal with us people.
Going along with this new religion/Great Reset, Pope Francis a few weeks ago issued a new Motu Proprio restricting the Traditional Latin Mass, which is the Mass said for over 1200 years until the 1960s/70s when the modernists/communists infiltrated The Church and essentially made it a protestant service. Pope Francis calls traditionalists "rigid" because we follow the traditional Faith and its beliefs. The vast majority of traditionalists are anti-COVID vax. The traditional parishes were the ones that stayed open during the pandemic. My theory is the Pope will corral all traditionalists into one camp and then call us schismatic.
Take for instance Fr. James Altman, who has been canceled by his Bishop in Wisconsin because he preached to his congregation to not get the death jab and stayed open during the pandemic. The bishop called him 'ineffective' although his congregation grew substantially. He cannot serve his parish anymore. Contrast that with Monsignor Jeffrey Burrill, the highest-ranking American priest below a Bishop currently, who was caught using Grindr and at other homosexual establishments. He resigned, however, he is still in good standing in the same diocese as Fr. Altman. Double standards are everywhere, and faithful Catholics have nowhere to go since 99% of the Bishops were bought out by the PPP loans. That's why they are promoting this vaccine.
I hope this is useful.